English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Bournemouth		54.1%
21.0%		24.9%
+136
+240
+130
+230
0
0		-1.21456-1.21221-1.39215
Everton
Leeds United		44.7%
29.1%		26.2%
+255
+116
+255
+110
1
1		-1.31319-1.31595-1.33964
Chelsea
Southampton		51.8%
24.7%		23.6%
-141
+420
-155
+420
1
2		-1.66680-1.69173-1.39950
Brighton and Hove Albion
Fulham		40.4%
30.7%		28.9%
+136
+246
+130
+221
1
2		-1.25246-1.21180-1.18136
West Ham United
Aston Villa		33.7%
39.7%		26.6%
+269
+114
+266
+110
1
0		-1.32543-1.33598-1.08687
Newcastle United
Wolverhampton		22.2%
52.9%		24.9%
+200
+161
+195
+150
1
1		-1.23011-1.24577-1.39074
Fulham
Arsenal		12.6%
67.8%		19.6%
+680
-237
+675
-270
1
2		-0.37198-0.36315-0.38889
Leicester City
Chelsea		28.8%
45.6%		25.5%
+725
-244
+650
-245
1
2		-0.36749-0.38484-0.78507
Bournemouth
Liverpool		5.8%
81.9%		12.4%
+1900
-638
+2000
-765
0
9		-0.16935-0.15436-0.19981
Leeds United
Brighton and Hove Albion		32.2%
39.6%		28.2%
+402
-131
+378
-137
0
1		-0.58650-0.59083-0.92591
Crystal Palace
Manchester City		6.3%
80.3%		13.4%
+1528
-520
+1550
-600
2
4		-0.19848-0.19909-0.21940
Manchester United
Southampton		57.4%
20.3%		22.2%
+102
+270
-125
+310
1
0		-0.72140-0.62573-0.55426
Liverpool
Manchester United		36.4%
35.8%		27.8%
-139
+373
-145
+350
1
2		-1.56662-1.54966-1.02678
Manchester City
Newcastle United		78.4%
7.5%		14.1%
-215
+610
-240
+650
3
3		-1.66421-1.64792-1.95935
Chelsea
Leeds United		58.8%
19.2%		21.9%
-181
+515
-190
+490
0
3		-1.83891-1.81843-1.64854
Brighton and Hove Albion
West Ham United		25.8%
48.1%		26.1%
+195
+159
+185
+150
2
0		-1.09913-1.09133-1.35363
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.