English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Crystal Palace		39.9%
33.1%		27.0%
+245
+130
+246
+135
0
2		-0.86938-0.88790-1.10673
Burnley
Chelsea		19.4%
61.5%		19.1%
+1157
-355
+1150
-365
1
1		-1.78958-1.80886-1.65747
Manchester City
Manchester United		45.4%
30.4%		24.2%
-140
+375
-140
+373
2
0		-0.56507-0.57242-0.78909
Aston Villa
Southampton		34.7%
41.3%		24.1%
+250
+105
+275
+105
0
1		-0.76070-0.75033-0.88467
Everton
Wolverhampton		36.7%
37.6%		25.7%
+255
+130
+255
+130
1
2		-0.86629-0.86629-0.97870
Liverpool
Manchester United		37.6%
37.2%		25.3%
+135
+200
+130
+205
5
0		-0.87962-0.87479-0.97891
Tottenham
West Ham United		44.0%
32.1%		23.9%
+215
+130
+220
+124
0
1		-0.86629-0.85015-1.13516
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		68.0%
15.1%		16.8%
-240
+750
-255
+700
4
1		-0.37474-0.37715-0.38543
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace		32.1%
41.5%		26.4%
+320
-108
+328
-115
1
1		-1.32554-1.33636-1.33003
Burnley
Southampton		28.4%
47.4%		24.2%
+300
+100
+300
+100
2
2		-1.32441-1.30833-1.41741
Wolverhampton
Leeds United		40.1%
34.0%		25.9%
+205
+145
+215
+145
1
1		-1.29463-1.25372-1.34942
Watford
Everton		19.7%
60.3%		20.0%
+395
-125
+380
-123
5
2		-1.62333-1.61325-1.62450
Norwich City
Chelsea		15.0%
68.7%		16.2%
+1400
-455
+1600
-493
0
7		-0.23273-0.22126-0.37510
Aston Villa
Arsenal		27.7%
49.5%		22.8%
+310
+100
+285
+100
1
3		-0.70723-0.73374-0.70316
Crystal Palace
Arsenal		23.3%
53.7%		23.0%
+515
-160
+485
-166
2
2		-1.43263-1.43033-1.47168
Tottenham
Newcastle United		52.5%
25.7%		21.8%
+125
+280
+105
+260
3
2		-0.79235-0.75809-0.64489
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.