English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arsenal
Bournemouth		64.1%
14.9%		21.0%
-219
+685
-240
+660
3
0		-0.39940-0.39518-0.44505
Southampton
Leicester City		21.5%
55.5%		22.9%
+357
-119
+325
-127
2
1		-1.52037-1.49072-1.53684
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace		38.7%
33.3%		28.0%
+213
+155
+201
+148
1
3		-0.95524-0.95508-1.09880
Wolverhampton
Tottenham		22.8%
53.0%		24.2%
+730
-220
+660
-231
0
1		-0.38668-0.39891-0.63490
Crystal Palace
Liverpool		9.4%
73.7%		16.8%
+1100
-350
+1300
-440
1
1		-1.85349-1.91108-1.78112
Tottenham
Chelsea		28.9%
46.2%		24.9%
+265
+116
+240
+120
2
2		-1.29554-1.27619-1.39022
Bournemouth
Manchester City		3.9%
86.4%		9.7%
+4003
-1200
+3600
-1600
0
4		-0.10350-0.10926-0.14676
Newcastle United
Brighton and Hove Albion		29.0%
43.2%		27.7%
+210
+151
+195
+145
0
0		-1.23457-1.24289-1.28248
Leeds United
Southampton		26.5%
48.4%		25.1%
+220
+133
+210
+125
2
2		-1.29817-1.31453-1.38318
Fulham
Wolverhampton		18.0%
58.4%		23.6%
+225
+143
+210
+140
0
0		-1.22227-1.21362-1.44358
Leicester City
Arsenal		34.1%
37.9%		27.9%
+608
-201
+575
-215
2
4		-0.42535-0.43117-0.96932
Everton
Aston Villa		38.3%
34.9%		26.8%
+375
-118
+360
-125
1
2		-0.63565-0.63726-1.05168
Manchester City
West Ham United		71.0%
11.6%		17.4%
-248
+704
-280
+725
2
0		-0.36074-0.35277-0.34231
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester United		11.4%
70.7%		17.9%
+385
-120
+415
-135
2
1		-1.58895-1.66379-2.17516
Chelsea
Everton		45.7%
29.0%		25.3%
-172
+576
-190
+600
1
0		-0.47652-0.46112-0.78404
Wolverhampton
Leeds United		40.3%
31.7%		28.0%
+215
+145
+210
+138
1
2		-0.91564-0.91185-1.14854
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.