English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
West Ham United
Everton		31.8%
43.9%		24.2%
+170
+175
+169
+175
1
0		-1.02786-1.03263-1.14467
Wolverhampton
Aston Villa		36.1%
38.5%		25.3%
+300
+129
+288
+120
3
2		-1.38063-1.37468-1.01758
Leeds United
Southampton		30.5%
45.7%		23.8%
+245
+121
+237
+115
0
1		-0.80553-0.80359-0.78333
Brighton and Hove Albion
Norwich City		42.3%
30.8%		26.9%
+109
+320
+110
+306
0
0		-1.28522-1.29320-1.31167
Manchester United
Leicester City		41.5%
33.7%		24.8%
-105
+290
-105
+275
2
4		-1.38569-1.36293-1.08812
Burnley
Manchester City		11.1%
74.3%		14.6%
+2169
-730
+1930
-700
0
2		-0.15249-0.17136-0.29649
Liverpool
Watford		69.9%
13.6%		16.4%
-290
+891
-290
+736
5
0		-0.31451-0.33271-0.35765
Manchester City
Liverpool		41.9%
32.9%		25.2%
+135
+207
+135
+201
2
2		-1.30956-1.29532-1.37872
Aston Villa
Tottenham		26.9%
51.7%		21.4%
+256
+115
+255
+110
1
2		-0.79279-0.79264-0.65904
Leicester City
Crystal Palace		49.1%
26.6%		24.3%
+175
+180
+170
+170
2
2		-1.21743-1.21719-1.41626
Arsenal
Brighton and Hove Albion		47.1%
28.1%		24.8%
+135
+231
+140
+225
0
0		-1.24532-1.22523-1.39538
Watford
Leeds United		25.6%
50.4%		24.0%
+380
-135
+371
-135
0
1		-0.58657-0.59658-0.68544
Newcastle United
Wolverhampton		27.0%
48.9%		24.1%
+375
-125
+350
-120
1
2		-0.61197-0.64693-0.71492
Southampton
Chelsea		24.9%
54.8%		20.3%
+685
-235
+640
-225
1
3		-0.38302-0.41024-0.60060
Norwich City
Burnley		27.5%
46.1%		26.4%
+305
-105
+305
-105
0
0		-1.31718-1.30693-1.33033
Everton
Manchester United		24.4%
54.6%		21.0%
+585
-190
+550
-190
1
1		-1.52717-1.50833-1.56055
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.