English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace		33.9%
38.7%		27.3%
+165
+195
+170
+185
1
1		-1.18065-1.16309-1.29755
Tottenham
Arsenal		36.1%
39.0%		24.9%
+245
+120
+245
+115
1
3		-0.81812-0.81758-0.94220
Wolverhampton
Southampton		35.7%
39.0%		25.3%
+260
+125
+255
+115
1
0		-1.30586-1.31557-1.03092
Norwich City
Everton		20.4%
59.1%		20.5%
+465
-140
+450
-140
0
2		-0.56563-0.57451-0.52623
Newcastle United
Watford		41.3%
32.2%		26.5%
+255
+115
+254
+115
1
1		-1.29503-1.28139-1.32810
West Ham United
Leeds United		39.6%
35.2%		25.2%
+135
+200
+135
+195
2
1		-0.89040-0.90266-0.92548
Burnley
Leicester City		21.2%
57.5%		21.3%
+450
-135
+420
-140
2
2		-1.38502-1.37306-1.54689
Aston Villa
Manchester United		21.6%
59.7%		18.7%
+695
-230
+685
-250
1
0		-2.09451-2.10521-1.53257
Manchester City
Chelsea		50.1%
27.5%		22.4%
+165
+190
+180
+191
1
0		-1.00865-1.04771-0.69131
Chelsea
Tottenham		38.2%
37.7%		24.1%
+100
+326
+100
+330
3
0		-0.72161-0.72635-0.96354
Manchester United
West Ham United		51.7%
26.3%		22.1%
-116
+334
-120
+325
2
1		-0.65183-0.65589-0.66047
Leicester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		49.0%
27.1%		24.0%
+200
+150
+200
+150
1
2		-0.96111-0.96582-1.30711
Everton
Aston Villa		38.9%
36.6%		24.5%
+255
+139
+245
+125
0
3		-0.85701-0.83896-1.00630
Southampton
Manchester City		15.0%
70.2%		14.8%
+2170
-575
+1500
-590
0
0		-2.23914-2.09330-1.91325
Arsenal
Burnley		49.0%
26.4%		24.5%
+105
+280
+100
+275
1
0		-0.74322-0.73664-0.71260
Watford
Norwich City		32.4%
39.8%		27.8%
+238
+135
+236
+130
3
1		-1.23756-1.25586-1.12547
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.