English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
Liverpool		15.8%
66.2%		17.9%
+1157
-315
+1030
-375
0
3		-0.26740-0.28698-0.41207
Leeds United
Newcastle United		36.7%
37.5%		25.8%
+125
+215
+130
+200
1
1		-1.35973-1.34600-1.35441
Burnley
Everton		25.4%
51.2%		23.4%
+430
-125
+425
-126
1
3		-0.60583-0.61741-0.66955
Manchester United
Wolverhampton		50.1%
26.7%		23.3%
-130
+390
-130
+390
1
0		-0.60115-0.60589-0.69185
Watford
Tottenham		16.3%
66.7%		17.0%
+745
-200
+675
-205
0
1		-0.41267-0.42839-0.40438
Leeds United
Burnley		35.9%
37.5%		26.7%
+122
+230
+123
+225
1
1		-1.30151-1.28330-1.32182
Chelsea
Liverpool		28.8%
48.1%		23.1%
+205
+150
+215
+140
1
1		-1.23498-1.20875-1.46603
Everton
Brighton and Hove Albion		42.8%
31.8%		25.3%
+240
+130
+241
+130
2
0		-1.25970-1.26645-0.84765
Leicester City
Norwich City		58.8%
20.3%		20.9%
-110
+319
-115
+334
2
1		-0.67885-0.65718-0.53156
Crystal Palace
West Ham United		29.3%
45.6%		25.1%
+595
-170
+560
-185
2
2		-1.44660-1.45457-1.38390
Southampton
Newcastle United		42.0%
33.2%		24.7%
+186
+145
+194
+140
2
2		-1.31587-1.28395-1.39727
Arsenal
Manchester City		19.7%
61.2%		19.1%
+800
-265
+1000
-310
0
5		-0.34883-0.32176-0.49058
Leicester City
West Ham United		43.7%
31.8%		24.5%
+190
+150
+190
+145
1
4		-0.95039-0.93805-1.14545
Chelsea
Arsenal		39.1%
36.0%		24.9%
-115
+365
-115
+350
2
0		-0.65683-0.67321-0.93797
Tottenham
Wolverhampton		42.6%
32.6%		24.8%
+145
+220
+150
+205
1
0		-0.92872-0.96063-0.85327
Manchester United
Southampton		52.3%
26.2%		21.6%
-165
+451
-170
+440
1
1		-1.50359-1.49580-1.53428
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.