English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Liverpool
Southampton		61.7%
17.3%		21.0%
-212
+591
-235
+600
2
1		-0.40650-0.39794-0.48242
Arsenal
Newcastle United		54.6%
21.3%		24.1%
-111
+330
-120
+330
0
2		-1.47355-1.49246-1.54773
Manchester City
West Ham United		71.0%
11.6%		17.4%
-252
+723
-275
+690
2
2		-1.70722-1.69958-1.74778
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		26.4%
47.6%		26.1%
+354
-111
+332
-110
1
1		-1.29459-1.29295-1.34504
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leeds United		31.9%
39.9%		28.2%
+170
+170
+163
+170
1
1		-1.29521-1.27801-1.26553
Leicester City
Watford		66.8%
13.2%		20.0%
-142
+415
-139
+390
5
1		-0.56359-0.58835-0.40413
Norwich City
Wolverhampton		15.9%
61.5%		22.6%
+528
-182
+555
-200
1
1		-1.52184-1.52717-1.48545
Burnley
Tottenham		15.0%
64.5%		20.5%
+933
-303
+850
-310
0
1		-0.30606-0.32673-0.43785
Arsenal
Tottenham		30.8%
42.8%		26.4%
+232
+131
+230
+125
0
3		-0.85607-0.85170-0.84915
Manchester City
Wolverhampton		69.0%
12.3%		18.7%
-385
+1200
-425
+1300
5
1		-0.25093-0.24903-0.37122
Everton
Watford		59.3%
17.9%		22.8%
-143
+485
-165
+500
0
0		-1.36508-1.40760-1.47709
Norwich City
Leicester City		10.2%
72.2%		17.6%
+891
-290
+840
-300
0
3		-0.31422-0.32775-0.32552
Chelsea
Leeds United		58.8%
19.2%		21.9%
-139
+403
-150
+390
3
0		-0.55486-0.55213-0.53079
Liverpool
Aston Villa		62.6%
16.8%		20.6%
-195
+647
-213
+650
2
1		-0.41849-0.40899-0.46919
Newcastle United
Manchester City		5.5%
82.8%		11.7%
+1700
-575
+1600
-572
0
5		-0.19346-0.20355-0.18843
West Ham United
Norwich City		52.8%
22.2%		25.0%
-138
+390
-140
+380
4
0		-0.56680-0.58594-0.63959
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.