English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Watford
Brighton and Hove Albion		25.4%
49.7%		24.9%
+460
-135
+445
-140
0
2		-0.58096-0.59019-0.69866
Everton
Leeds United		43.1%
32.2%		24.7%
+265
+110
+259
+110
2
2		-1.29828-1.28201-1.39857
Newcastle United
Aston Villa		28.8%
47.9%		23.3%
+330
-120
+320
-120
0
2		-0.63999-0.64724-0.73603
Norwich City
Manchester City		8.2%
79.0%		12.8%
+2300
-800
+2355
-900
0
5		-0.14636-0.14070-0.23556
Burnley
Liverpool		14.9%
67.8%		17.3%
+1150
-375
+1150
-400
0
2		-0.25386-0.25876-0.38849
Manchester City
Tottenham		53.9%
25.1%		21.0%
-170
+535
-171
+490
0
1		-1.87061-1.81284-1.38194
West Ham United
Newcastle United		41.3%
32.1%		26.6%
+115
+245
+120
+235
4
2		-0.79769-0.82650-0.88545
Liverpool
Norwich City		71.8%
14.8%		13.5%
-200
+694
-221
+600
3
0		-0.37654-0.40413-0.33182
Aston Villa
Watford		49.2%
26.8%		23.9%
+120
+260
+120
+252
2
3		-1.31569-1.30195-1.31557
Brighton and Hove Albion
Burnley		34.2%
35.9%		30.0%
+145
+230
+140
+230
2
1		-0.91952-0.91990-1.07368
Southampton
Everton		31.2%
43.8%		25.0%
+300
+105
+301
+100
1
3		-0.75351-0.73739-0.82640
Wolverhampton
Leicester City		27.3%
48.3%		24.5%
+425
-135
+400
-140
0
1		-0.58821-0.58780-0.72801
Crystal Palace
Chelsea		20.8%
60.7%		18.5%
+1000
-275
+950
-310
0
3		-0.32767-0.32964-0.49919
Leeds United
Manchester United		18.9%
65.6%		15.6%
+443
-155
+470
-164
1
5		-0.52750-0.49972-0.42233
Manchester United
Wolverhampton		49.9%
26.6%		23.5%
+221
+140
+229
+130
2
1		-1.18417-1.23179-0.69425
Southampton
West Ham United		33.8%
39.9%		26.3%
+365
-125
+350
-128
0
3		-0.61127-0.62304-0.91967
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.