English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Everton
Leicester City		25.5%
49.5%		24.9%
+191
+168
+164
+180
2
1		-1.08509-1.01807-1.36465
Leeds United
Arsenal		18.0%
59.7%		22.3%
+535
-187
+585
-210
1
2		-0.45174-0.41864-0.51664
Tottenham
Liverpool		20.7%
56.6%		22.7%
+625
-224
+610
-245
1
1		-1.66379-1.67526-1.48109
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		63.3%
15.6%		21.0%
+150
+207
+135
+215
0
4		-1.14134-1.18551-1.85604
Aston Villa
Burnley		41.2%
31.4%		27.4%
+153
+218
+145
+205
3
1		-0.94364-0.93440-0.88739
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		19.5%
57.9%		22.5%
+860
-260
+900
-300
2
2		-1.64990-1.65826-1.49148
Watford
Crystal Palace		20.8%
53.1%		26.1%
+459
-143
+435
-145
0
1		-0.55054-0.55909-0.63386
Arsenal
West Ham United		43.1%
30.2%		26.7%
-121
+357
-125
+340
2
1		-0.62168-0.63407-0.84218
Leicester City
Tottenham		32.8%
40.7%		26.5%
+810
-260
+775
-250
1
3		-0.34600-0.36008-0.89911
Chelsea
Everton		45.7%
29.0%		25.3%
-138
+426
-140
+405
0
1		-1.68298-1.66294-1.23763
Manchester City
Leeds United		76.2%
8.6%		15.2%
-300
+847
-320
+800
4
0		-0.30971-0.31780-0.27222
Norwich City
Aston Villa		17.3%
60.6%		22.1%
+697
-234
+700
-238
0
2		-0.38040-0.38346-0.50036
Crystal Palace
Southampton		25.8%
48.3%		25.8%
+216
+145
+210
+141
2
1		-1.18234-1.17115-1.35472
Burnley
Watford		42.0%
28.7%		29.3%
+193
+166
+190
+160
2
1		-1.09506-1.09667-0.86662
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton		24.7%
48.7%		26.6%
+196
+182
+182
+174
3
0		-1.10530-1.07802-1.39999
Liverpool
Newcastle United		70.6%
11.5%		17.9%
-183
+572
-190
+700
1
0		-0.45593-0.41352-0.34832
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.