English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Dec 26, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Manchester United
Wolverhampton 		54.5%
21.5%		23.9%
-120
+328
-120
+330
2.68
o2¾-109
u2¾-107
o2½-125
u3-140
2nd H
58:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tottenham
Crystal Palace		53.7%
22.0%		24.3%
-107
+285
-110
+280
0
1		-1.36842-1.37745-1.51549
Manchester United
West Ham United		56.7%
20.6%		22.7%
+117
+235
+120
+215
1
2		-1.23121-1.18882-1.57896
Fulham
Everton		15.8%
62.9%		21.3%
+168
+174
+160
+175
1
1		-1.26592-1.25467-1.54844
Wolverhampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		40.0%
31.3%		28.8%
+478
-172
+485
-185
2
2		-1.53132-1.53670-1.24653
Southampton
Manchester City		8.1%
77.8%		14.1%
+2500
-940
+1900
-900
0
1		-0.13581-0.15138-0.25114
Bournemouth
Aston Villa		17.1%
61.5%		21.4%
+353
-126
+330
-125
1
1		-1.41416-1.41420-1.54122
Chelsea
Liverpool		24.1%
51.7%		24.1%
+370
-145
+380
-150
1
2		-0.55099-0.54092-0.65898
Manchester City
Wolverhampton		69.0%
12.3%		18.7%
-288
+775
-293
+800
2
1		-0.33257-0.31670-0.37122
Arsenal
Bournemouth		64.1%
14.9%		21.0%
-135
+425
-125
+375
0
2		-1.68260-1.57103-1.90113
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		34.8%
36.0%		29.2%
+375
-138
+360
-115
1
0		-1.58621-1.52832-1.05587
Leicester City
Southampton		46.4%
28.2%		25.4%
+240
+120
+235
+120
3
2		-1.24988-1.25016-0.76867
Aston Villa
Fulham		48.6%
25.9%		25.6%
+190
+150
+180
+150
3
1		-1.09479-1.07555-0.72216
West Ham United
Tottenham		21.9%
55.1%		22.9%
+525
-218
+515
-220
1
4		-0.40782-0.41694-0.59553
Tottenham
Brighton and Hove Albion		53.6%
22.4%		24.0%
+125
+202
+130
+185
2
3		-1.13051-1.08356-1.49705
Manchester United
Aston Villa		58.2%
19.8%		22.0%
+215
+120
+210
+115
0
0		-1.38902-1.40801-1.51386
Newcastle United
Everton		19.7%
57.4%		22.9%
+110
+278
+100
+261
0
0		-1.33888-1.37437-1.47447
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks52-1-2 (0.600)0-1.31775 
Sportsbooks52-1-2 (0.600)0-1.32008 
DRatings50-3-2 (0.200)0-1.53800
-0.22025
-0.21792

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.