English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arsenal
Brighton and Hove Albion		50.4%
23.8%		25.8%
-200
+562
-185
+550
3
0		-0.43118-0.45229-0.68528
Burnley
Everton		20.1%
56.0%		23.9%
+360
-130
+365
-130
0
1		-0.60569-0.60342-0.58053
Newcastle United
Fulham		37.2%
33.7%		29.1%
+178
+145
+182
+140
1
0		-1.05642-1.07746-0.98964
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		31.2%
41.5%		27.3%
+152
+185
+150
+180
2
1		-0.95711-0.96223-1.16543
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		75.3%
8.6%		16.1%
-280
+950
-310
+1245
4
2		-0.32594-0.28824-0.28317
Manchester United
Chelsea		38.0%
35.3%		26.7%
+302
-125
+282
-125
3
4		-0.61887-0.63646-1.04185
Sheffield United
Liverpool		8.1%
75.9%		16.0%
+3000
-1500
+3500
-2050
1
3		-0.08807-0.09046-0.27604
Aston Villa
Manchester City		7.9%
78.2%		13.9%
+1250
-435
+1050
-450
1
4		-0.23169-0.24755-0.24568
Tottenham
West Ham United		45.9%
28.7%		25.4%
-105
+257
-110
+250
1
1		-1.47416-1.48157-1.37227
Wolverhampton
Burnley		42.6%
28.9%		28.5%
+210
+135
+200
+135
1
1		-1.28605-1.29638-1.25411
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth		43.7%
28.0%		28.3%
+305
-111
+303
-115
0
1		-0.67649-0.67421-1.27382
Everton
Newcastle United		48.5%
26.0%		25.5%
+277
+100
+270
+100
1
1		-1.35317-1.35802-1.36559
Arsenal
Manchester City		12.8%
68.3%		18.8%
+276
+106
+280
+105
0
0		-1.32976-1.30926-1.66908
Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool		9.6%
73.7%		16.7%
+850
-325
+800
-310
1
2		-0.29534-0.30643-0.30560
Wolverhampton
Aston Villa		34.5%
37.9%		27.6%
+540
-187
+520
-185
0
2		-0.45796-0.47683-0.97133
Everton
Bournemouth		58.8%
18.6%		22.6%
+230
+117
+220
+120
1
2		-0.80479-0.82865-1.67943
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.