English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Dec 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Aston Villa		58.2%
19.8%		22.0%
+215
+120
+210
+115
0
0		-1.38902-1.40801-1.51386
Newcastle United
Everton		19.7%
57.4%		22.9%
+110
+278
+100
+261
0
0		-1.33888-1.37437-1.47447
Bournemouth
Leicester City		10.0%
73.1%		16.9%
+100
+263
+105
+253
0
1		-1.32062-1.29631-0.31303
Fulham
Manchester City		4.5%
84.7%		10.8%
+1050
-360
+1000
-400
2
3		-0.26599-0.26469-0.16611
Southampton
Arsenal		23.1%
52.9%		24.0%
+1675
-575
+1700
-600
1
3		-0.19224-0.18851-0.63662
Liverpool
Crystal Palace		67.1%
13.0%		19.9%
-147
+418
-155
+500
1
0		-0.54492-0.49212-0.39900
Southampton
Bournemouth		53.6%
22.4%		24.0%
+535
-190
+500
-184
1
3		-0.44796-0.46549-1.49799
Tottenham
Manchester United		24.1%
52.0%		23.8%
+233
+135
+216
+115
3
0		-1.18505-1.19106-1.42097
Liverpool
Wolverhampton		58.8%
18.4%		22.8%
-313
+805
-329
+825
2
1		-0.31169-0.30359-0.53135
Leicester City
Arsenal		34.1%
37.9%		27.9%
+1500
-485
+1600
-548
2
4		-0.21653-0.20475-0.96932
Crystal Palace
Everton		21.8%
53.5%		24.8%
+167
+180
+170
+175
1
2		-1.05509-1.04797-0.62607
Brighton and Hove Albion
Chelsea		14.0%
66.5%		19.5%
+330
-128
+320
-130
2
4		-0.60349-0.61387-0.40858
Manchester City
Newcastle United		78.4%
7.5%		14.1%
-152
+405
-155
+410
1
1		-1.52721-1.51231-1.95935
Arsenal
Manchester City		12.8%
68.3%		18.8%
+420
-128
+415
-127
2
2		-1.33203-1.30372-1.66908
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		63.3%
15.4%		21.3%
+143
+190
+145
+190
0
0		-1.32460-1.31126-1.54693
Wolverhampton
Aston Villa		34.5%
37.9%		27.6%
+445
-160
+447
-179
1
3		-0.51133-0.49177-0.97133
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks73-2-2 (0.571)0-1.16997 
Sportsbooks73-2-2 (0.571)0-1.17224 
DRatings71-4-2 (0.286)0-1.40138
-0.23141
-0.22914

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.