English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester City
Tottenham		59.3%
18.9%		21.8%
-120
+295
-110
+280
1
0		-0.63424-0.66336-0.52297
Southampton
Chelsea		18.4%
60.8%		20.8%
+1550
-600
+1625
-650
0
4		-0.18569-0.17882-0.49733
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace		38.7%
33.3%		28.0%
+230
+125
+225
+140
1
4		-0.84202-0.88150-1.09880
Bournemouth
Brighton and Hove Albion		21.4%
53.4%		25.2%
+270
-101
+260
+100
1
2		-0.71693-0.72998-0.62747
Fulham
Wolverhampton		18.0%
58.4%		23.6%
+220
+140
+205
+165
2
1		-1.19663-1.12338-1.71636
Liverpool
Manchester City		23.4%
52.0%		24.6%
+118
+217
+115
+215
2
0		-0.81398-0.81018-1.45222
Chelsea
Aston Villa		52.5%
24.1%		23.4%
+165
+163
+160
+160
1
2		-1.00174-1.00144-1.42292
Wolverhampton
Bournemouth		54.1%
21.0%		24.9%
+450
-163
+425
-165
1
0		-1.73829-1.70815-0.61389
Brighton and Hove Albion
Southampton		26.3%
48.0%		25.7%
-178
+480
-190
+500
4
0		-0.47547-0.46364-1.33724
Crystal Palace
Fulham		39.5%
30.9%		29.6%
+272
+109
+270
+110
2
0		-1.34619-1.34811-0.92826
West Ham United
Arsenal		23.4%
52.2%		24.4%
+1025
-330
+1125
-355
1
0		-2.45016-2.54072-1.45235
Manchester United
Everton		51.5%
24.3%		24.3%
+198
+162
+200
+160
2
2		-1.18153-1.18221-1.41634
Liverpool
Aston Villa		62.6%
16.8%		20.6%
-110
+285
-115
+290
2
2		-1.41931-1.42674-1.57867
Manchester United
Tottenham		42.8%
31.2%		26.0%
+213
+118
+205
+120
0
1		-0.81335-0.82975-1.16363
Wolverhampton
Liverpool		13.5%
66.8%		19.7%
+1100
-430
+1100
-424
1
2		-0.24397-0.24650-0.40422
Everton
Crystal Palace		44.6%
28.2%		27.2%
+347
+101
+360
+100
2
1		-1.53058-1.55084-0.80829
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.