English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Burnley
Chelsea		12.6%
68.6%		18.8%
+1000
-375
+975
-405
2
2		-1.90542-1.91950-1.67147
West Ham United
Newcastle United		43.3%
30.0%		26.7%
+293
-117
+290
-120
3
4		-0.64896-0.65089-1.20371
Aston Villa
West Ham United		31.8%
42.1%		26.1%
+180
+148
+170
+148
1
1		-1.32848-1.34121-1.34415
Tottenham
Fulham		63.2%
15.9%		20.8%
+103
+240
+108
+240
0
3		-1.25804-1.25460-1.83772
Newcastle United
Chelsea		12.2%
70.1%		17.7%
+305
-120
+290
-120
2
3		-0.63614-0.65089-0.35465
Manchester City
Liverpool		42.9%
30.2%		26.8%
+105
+244
+100
+240
1
1		-1.41247-1.41799-1.31531
Burnley
West Ham United		23.6%
51.0%		25.4%
+440
-152
+440
-161
2
2		-1.43339-1.45590-1.36904
Tottenham
Aston Villa		47.5%
27.9%		24.6%
+168
+147
+155
+155
4
0		-1.01344-0.97228-0.74503
Fulham
Wolverhampton		18.0%
58.4%		23.6%
+198
+147
+190
+145
1
2		-0.93405-0.94130-0.53770
Everton
Manchester United		18.1%
60.4%		21.5%
+320
-115
+315
-120
0
2		-0.65792-0.65126-0.50460
Arsenal
Sheffield United		54.4%
20.4%		25.2%
-550
+1550
-585
+1600
6
0		-0.20143-0.19200-0.60879
Manchester United
Manchester City		20.1%
57.1%		22.8%
+975
-385
+990
-400
1
3		-0.25519-0.25055-0.56103
Bournemouth
Burnley		23.4%
50.1%		26.5%
+101
+270
+105
+256
2
0		-0.72861-0.75609-1.45171
Crystal Palace
Tottenham		16.4%
62.2%		21.4%
+505
-183
+565
-198
1
3		-0.46486-0.44519-0.47412
West Ham United
Everton		28.4%
45.8%		25.8%
+250
+115
+255
+112
3
1		-1.28100-1.30144-1.25751
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		44.0%
28.7%		27.3%
+360
-137
+335
-138
0
3		-0.58107-0.59281-1.24956
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.