English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 22, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Norwich City
Liverpool		5.9%
81.1%		13.0%
+2200
-700
+2200
-765
1
3		-0.15744-0.16110-0.20934
Chelsea
Crystal Palace		58.4%
18.8%		22.8%
-141
+476
-146
+450
1
0		-0.55101-0.56286-0.53804
Burnley
Brighton and Hove Albion		29.3%
41.9%		28.8%
+566
-155
+527
-155
3
0		-1.91108-1.87412-1.22854
Watford
Aston Villa		16.4%
62.2%		21.5%
+475
-144
+450
-155
1
0		-1.76317-1.74979-1.81070
Newcastle United
West Ham United		23.2%
52.4%		24.4%
+475
-143
+420
-145
1
1		-1.43553-1.41034-1.40940
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester United		18.6%
65.1%		16.3%
+400
-120
+375
-125
0
2		-0.62174-0.63750-0.42963
West Ham United
Leicester City		26.9%
50.0%		23.1%
+150
+201
+145
+195
2
2		-1.28078-1.27679-1.46672
Wolverhampton
Tottenham		27.6%
48.7%		23.7%
+480
-138
+455
-145
2
0		-1.77661-1.75875-1.28804
Aston Villa
Newcastle United		40.6%
32.9%		26.5%
+166
+187
+158
+176
0
1		-1.07265-1.05832-1.11124
Liverpool
Burnley		63.5%
18.9%		17.7%
-437
+1283
-420
+1250
1
0		-0.23461-0.25089-0.45449
Manchester City
Norwich City		79.2%
11.0%		9.8%
-481
+1689
-550
+1400
4
0		-0.20161-0.21657-0.23340
Brighton and Hove Albion
Watford		42.6%
29.4%		28.0%
+109
+310
+109
+290
2
0		-0.75351-0.77886-0.85221
Leeds United
Everton		27.3%
49.3%		23.4%
+187
+160
+182
+145
0
3		-0.97014-0.94343-0.70654
Southampton
Manchester United		22.2%
59.8%		18.0%
+514
-176
+448
-165
1
1		-1.54384-1.51349-1.71719
Leicester City
Liverpool		26.1%
51.0%		22.9%
+1300
-442
+1200
-475
0
2		-0.22298-0.23009-0.67338
Arsenal
Wolverhampton		39.6%
32.6%		27.8%
+123
+300
+130
+300
1
0		-0.80345-0.84026-0.92634
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.