English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Feb 8, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aston Villa
Burnley		41.2%
31.4%		27.4%
+153
+218
+145
+205
3
1		-0.94364-0.93440-0.88739
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		19.5%
57.9%		22.5%
+860
-260
+900
-300
2
2		-1.64990-1.65826-1.49148
Watford
Crystal Palace		20.8%
53.1%		26.1%
+459
-143
+435
-145
0
1		-0.55054-0.55909-0.63386
Arsenal
West Ham United		43.1%
30.2%		26.7%
-121
+357
-125
+340
2
1		-0.62168-0.63407-0.84218
Leicester City
Tottenham		32.8%
40.7%		26.5%
+810
-260
+775
-250
1
3		-0.34600-0.36008-0.89911
Chelsea
Everton		45.7%
29.0%		25.3%
-138
+426
-140
+405
0
1		-1.68298-1.66294-1.23763
Manchester City
Leeds United		76.2%
8.6%		15.2%
-300
+847
-320
+800
4
0		-0.30971-0.31780-0.27222
Norwich City
Aston Villa		17.3%
60.6%		22.1%
+697
-234
+700
-238
0
2		-0.38040-0.38346-0.50036
Crystal Palace
Southampton		25.8%
48.3%		25.8%
+216
+145
+210
+141
2
1		-1.18234-1.17115-1.35472
Burnley
Watford		42.0%
28.7%		29.3%
+193
+166
+190
+160
2
1		-1.09506-1.09667-0.86662
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton		24.7%
48.7%		26.6%
+196
+182
+182
+174
3
0		-1.10530-1.07802-1.39999
Liverpool
Newcastle United		70.6%
11.5%		17.9%
-183
+572
-190
+700
1
0		-0.45593-0.41352-0.34832
Chelsea
Manchester United		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+113
+265
+115
+259
1
1		-1.30192-1.28172-1.38633
Leeds United
Crystal Palace		32.4%
38.9%		28.7%
+206
+147
+190
+141
0
0		-1.27001-1.28681-1.24963
Everton
Liverpool		15.4%
64.4%		20.2%
+1496
-480
+1600
-540
0
2		-0.21343-0.20517-0.44012
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.0%
33.3%		27.7%
+291
+112
+285
+105
2
2		-1.24511-1.25400-1.28518
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks64-1-1 (0.750)0-0.79028 
Sportsbooks64-1-1 (0.750)0-0.78900 
DRatings65-0-1 (0.917)0-0.75035
0.03992
0.03864

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.