English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Southampton		29.7%
44.8%		25.5%
+141
+230
+155
+219
2
1		-0.34824-0.36367-0.91902
Manchester City
Fulham		77.3%
12.2%		10.4%
-240
+750
-243
+725
3
0		-0.12051-0.12332-0.14672
Burnley
Everton		25.4%
51.2%		23.4%
+320
+100
+319
+105
2
1		-0.65844-0.64611-1.10253
West Bromwich Albion
Crystal Palace		24.4%
52.8%		22.8%
+245
+135
+240
+135
0
1		-0.88673-0.89578-0.37955
Chelsea
Leeds United		53.4%
25.3%		21.2%
-143
+425
-135
+390
0
0		-0.94573-0.92043-0.76116
Aston Villa
Newcastle United		40.6%
32.9%		26.5%
+113
+270
+115
+260
1
1		-0.82370-0.81588-0.69865
Southampton
Manchester City		15.6%
72.7%		11.8%
+1675
-550
+1650
-585
2
5		-0.06446-0.06476-0.19388
Leeds United
West Ham United		29.7%
45.2%		25.2%
+230
+125
+230
+125
0
2		-0.51988-0.51988-0.50504
Everton
Chelsea		27.4%
50.2%		22.4%
+525
-151
+500
-168
0
2		-0.23584-0.23576-0.43607
Crystal Palace
Tottenham		22.9%
56.7%		20.4%
+575
-183
+550
-190
1
4		-0.20629-0.21093-0.33913
Manchester United
Manchester City		25.8%
52.0%		22.2%
+615
-200
+595
-210
2
0		-1.75210-1.74188-1.10386
Fulham
Liverpool		13.1%
75.6%		11.4%
+500
-160
+675
-160
1
0		-1.54590-1.75256-1.91447
Newcastle United
West Bromwich Albion		43.7%
30.3%		26.0%
+230
+140
+215
+145
0
0		-0.70577-0.70102-0.70980
Leicester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		48.7%
26.9%		24.3%
+210
+150
+204
+155
2
1		-0.80647-0.78489-0.43998
Wolverhampton
Aston Villa		35.0%
37.3%		27.6%
+198
+165
+190
+160
0
0		-0.69487-0.69464-0.69366
Southampton
Sheffield United		41.2%
31.3%		27.6%
+115
+274
+110
+270
2
0		-0.45416-0.44953-0.56551
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.