English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Feb 10, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arsenal
Brighton and Hove Albion		47.1%
28.1%		24.8%
+135
+231
+140
+225
0
0		-1.24532-1.22523-1.39538
Watford
Leeds United		25.6%
50.4%		24.0%
+380
-135
+371
-135
0
1		-0.58657-0.59658-0.68544
Newcastle United
Wolverhampton		27.0%
48.9%		24.1%
+375
-125
+350
-120
1
2		-0.61197-0.64693-0.71492
Southampton
Chelsea		24.9%
54.8%		20.3%
+685
-235
+640
-225
1
3		-0.38302-0.41024-0.60060
Norwich City
Burnley		27.5%
46.1%		26.4%
+305
-105
+305
-105
0
0		-1.31718-1.30693-1.33033
Everton
Manchester United		24.4%
54.6%		21.0%
+585
-190
+550
-190
1
1		-1.52717-1.50833-1.56055
Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace		33.9%
38.7%		27.3%
+165
+195
+170
+185
1
1		-1.18065-1.16309-1.29755
Tottenham
Arsenal		36.1%
39.0%		24.9%
+245
+120
+245
+115
1
3		-0.81812-0.81758-0.94220
Wolverhampton
Southampton		35.7%
39.0%		25.3%
+260
+125
+255
+115
1
0		-1.30586-1.31557-1.03092
Norwich City
Everton		20.4%
59.1%		20.5%
+465
-140
+450
-140
0
2		-0.56563-0.57451-0.52623
Newcastle United
Watford		41.3%
32.2%		26.5%
+255
+115
+254
+115
1
1		-1.29503-1.28139-1.32810
West Ham United
Leeds United		39.6%
35.2%		25.2%
+135
+200
+135
+195
2
1		-0.89040-0.90266-0.92548
Burnley
Leicester City		21.2%
57.5%		21.3%
+450
-135
+420
-140
2
2		-1.38502-1.37306-1.54689
Aston Villa
Manchester United		21.6%
59.7%		18.7%
+695
-230
+685
-250
1
0		-2.09451-2.10521-1.53257
Manchester City
Chelsea		50.1%
27.5%		22.4%
+165
+190
+180
+191
1
0		-1.00865-1.04771-0.69131
Chelsea
Tottenham		38.2%
37.7%		24.1%
+100
+326
+100
+330
3
0		-0.72161-0.72635-0.96354
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.22878 
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.22684 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.00672
0.22206
0.22011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.