English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Feb 10, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
West Bromwich Albion
Leicester City		15.6%
72.2%		12.3%
+475
-155
+480
-160
0
3		-0.52911-0.52751-0.32613
Manchester City
Aston Villa		66.4%
18.7%		14.9%
-295
+950
-300
+850
2
1		-0.31882-0.33205-0.40967
Southampton
Tottenham		27.2%
51.0%		21.8%
+320
-115
+300
-115
1
2		-0.65792-0.67002-0.67295
Brighton and Hove Albion
Chelsea		21.2%
60.6%		18.2%
+480
-150
+460
-145
0
0		-1.16930-1.16493-1.02643
Liverpool
Leeds United		61.8%
20.4%		17.7%
-160
+409
-165
+400
1
1		-1.08800-1.08456-1.03446
Burnley
Manchester United		17.4%
67.1%		15.5%
+790
-265
+800
-278
1
3		-0.35041-0.34365-0.39849
Fulham
Arsenal		19.5%
62.2%		18.2%
+380
-118
+390
-121
1
1		-1.11090-1.11744-1.05382
Sheffield United
Wolverhampton		25.7%
48.6%		25.7%
+450
-125
+425
-128
0
1		-0.61465-0.62230-0.72216
West Ham United
Newcastle United		41.3%
32.1%		26.6%
+118
+260
+117
+265
2
3		-1.29510-1.32750-1.13544
Tottenham
Everton		39.5%
34.3%		26.3%
+115
+265
+115
+246
2
2		-1.05067-1.04244-1.00018
Everton
Brighton and Hove Albion		42.8%
31.8%		25.3%
+255
+120
+250
+115
0
0		-1.04940-1.04501-0.99616
Southampton
West Bromwich Albion		53.5%
25.2%		21.3%
+110
+260
+110
+252
0
3		-1.30704-1.30342-1.37646
Arsenal
Sheffield United		50.0%
25.3%		24.7%
-150
+475
-150
+433
3
0		-0.53084-0.55710-0.69361
Manchester United
Tottenham		41.9%
33.9%		24.2%
+140
+200
+140
+192
3
1		-0.90286-0.91935-0.87010
Leicester City
West Ham United		43.7%
31.8%		24.5%
+140
+217
+133
+222
2
3		-1.18826-1.20267-1.14545
Newcastle United
Burnley		33.5%
39.8%		26.7%
+235
+136
+230
+135
2
1		-1.23843-1.23605-1.09359
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.22878 
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.22684 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.00672
0.22206
0.22011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.