English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Feb 10, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Chelsea
Crystal Palace		53.1%
24.6%		22.3%
-200
+670
-200
+640
4
1		-0.43414-0.45015-0.63294
Aston Villa
Liverpool		19.4%
62.9%		17.7%
+704
-208
+619
-215
1
2		-0.40275-0.42021-0.46374
Leeds United
Manchester City		12.2%
73.9%		13.9%
+730
-275
+950
-270
2
1		-2.15132-2.35020-2.09964
Wolverhampton
Fulham		46.7%
27.9%		25.4%
+200
+170
+200
+170
1
0		-1.12458-1.13498-0.76158
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		32.8%
39.9%		27.3%
+163
+195
+165
+190
3
2		-1.00011-1.01835-1.11471
Crystal Palace
Everton		26.6%
49.1%		24.3%
+400
-118
+425
-120
1
1		-1.14230-1.16179-1.01842
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester United		18.6%
65.1%		16.3%
+465
-155
+450
-150
1
2		-0.52618-0.55417-0.42963
Fulham
Aston Villa		25.3%
52.4%		22.3%
+210
+153
+205
+160
1
3		-0.95158-0.98500-0.64577
Tottenham
Newcastle United		52.5%
25.7%		21.8%
-145
+465
-145
+422
2
2		-1.15302-1.13402-1.00190
Burnley
Southampton		28.1%
46.9%		25.0%
+305
+105
+296
+105
2
3		-0.74627-0.76295-0.75668
Liverpool
Arsenal		45.5%
29.1%		25.3%
+145
+190
+146
+180
3
0		-0.92271-0.94076-0.78702
Manchester City
Leicester City		53.3%
24.9%		21.8%
-140
+434
-150
+415
2
0		-0.56565-0.55769-0.62974
Sheffield United
Leeds United		30.3%
41.6%		28.1%
+531
-175
+525
-182
1
2		-0.48167-0.48156-0.87628
West Bromwich Albion
Chelsea		14.0%
76.0%		10.0%
+1156
-347
+1200
-385
5
2		-2.55993-2.60167-1.96604
Tottenham
Aston Villa		44.4%
31.2%		24.5%
+140
+205
+140
+204
2
0		-0.90135-0.91113-0.37331
Arsenal
West Ham United		41.1%
32.3%		26.6%
+117
+245
+115
+245
3
3		-1.04230-1.04577-0.76007
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.22878 
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.22684 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.00672
0.22206
0.22011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.