France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 13, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Brest
Rennes 		23.8%
49.9%		26.3%
+308
-112
+310
-120
0.93
1.48		2.41
o2¾-102
u2¾-115
o2½-125
u2½+115
Paris Saint-Germain
Metz 		87.0%
3.7%		9.3%
-350
+875
-360
+825
3.09
0.53		3.62
o3½-111
u3½-102
o3½+100
u3½-105
Games for Dec 12, 2025
Games for Dec 14, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nantes
Angers		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+283
+114
+270
+115
1
4		-0.79624-0.80406-0.97501
Lyon
Lorient		62.7%
15.8%		21.5%
+107
+280
+110
+280
0
1		-1.36967-1.36379-1.84757
Angers
Nice		32.6%
40.8%		26.6%
+370
-128
+325
-115
1
0		-1.58221-1.49086-1.12083
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.8%
86.8%		9.3%
+820
-330
+800
-350
0
5		-0.29897-0.29316-0.14124
Strasbourg
Toulouse		73.2%
9.3%		17.4%
+185
+161
+180
+160
0
1		-0.99398-0.99932-2.37033
Marseille
Lille		23.3%
51.1%		25.6%
+200
+140
+220
+130
0
1		-0.91056-0.86303-0.67231
Monaco
Brest		44.1%
30.2%		25.7%
+103
+255
+100
+248
0
1		-1.30041-1.28674-1.19779
Nantes
Lyon		15.7%
62.9%		21.4%
+730
-248
+650
-240
0
3		-0.37331-0.39475-0.46416
Nice
Lorient		38.2%
33.9%		27.8%
+201
+141
+200
+140
1
3		-0.91437-0.91454-1.08075
Brest
Strasbourg		24.9%
48.7%		26.4%
+360
-128
+355
-127
2
1		-1.55941-1.55018-1.38990
Toulouse
Marseille		5.0%
82.8%		12.3%
+455
-157
+430
-155
2
2		-1.44906-1.42221-2.09948
Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco		85.2%
5.0%		9.7%
-147
+365
-150
+360
0
1		-1.57118-1.56830-2.99274
Rennes
Metz		39.8%
30.5%		29.7%
-105
+272
+103
+250
1
0		-0.70453-0.75205-0.92153
Lorient
Nantes		25.0%
47.4%		27.6%
+142
+205
+143
+200
1
1		-1.25839-1.25141-1.28754
Angers
Toulouse		68.7%
12.1%		19.2%
+480
-147
+450
-150
1
0		-1.79360-1.75210-0.37478
Metz
Brest		32.3%
38.6%		29.1%
+365
-121
+352
-130
2
3		-0.62642-0.61897-0.95181
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.79624 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.80406 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.97501
-0.17877
-0.17095

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.