France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 29, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lille
Nice 		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
+147
+193
+143
+180
1.95
0.97		2.92
o2¾-108
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+112
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient 		88.7%
3.1%		8.1%
-400
+980
-395
+1000
3.26
0.52		3.78
o3¼-115
u3¼-101
o3½+110
u3½-130
Angers
Marseille 		19.7%
56.4%		23.9%
+1100
-445
+1200
-465
0.90
1.71		2.61
o3+104
u3-115
o3-105
u3-115
Rennes
Toulouse 		73.8%
8.9%		17.3%
+248
+116
+240
+115
2.20
0.61		2.81
o2½-110
u2½-104
o2½-110
u2½-110
Monaco
Nantes 		39.7%
33.2%		27.1%
-148
+390
-149
+385
1.30
1.17		2.47
o2¾-118
u2¾+103
o3+110
u3-130
Games for Oct 28, 2025
Games for Nov 1, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Strasbourg
Lyon		18.8%
58.1%		23.0%
+290
-105
+300
-105
1
2		-0.70370-0.69750-0.54230
Lorient
Angers		26.7%
46.3%		26.9%
+186
+182
+180
+180
0
2		-1.07046-1.06088-0.76945
Nice
Rennes		25.5%
49.0%		25.5%
+268
+107
+240
+110
2
1		-1.33724-1.27075-1.36826
Metz
Lille		12.8%
67.1%		20.1%
+1150
-415
+1125
-380
1
6		-0.25058-0.25613-0.39925
Toulouse
Monaco		5.9%
82.3%		11.8%
+226
+122
+280
+115
0
1		-0.83188-0.77150-0.19539
Paris Saint-Germain
Brest		87.9%
3.6%		8.5%
-297
+805
-310
+815
3
0		-0.32519-0.32414-0.12886
Lille
Nantes		56.7%
19.3%		24.0%
-154
+467
-140
+400
2
0		-0.53558-0.58780-0.56789
Metz
Toulouse		66.2%
12.7%		21.0%
+540
-185
+525
-190
0
4		-0.46679-0.46949-2.06357
Brest
Lorient		35.6%
34.8%		29.6%
+169
+179
+170
+175
3
3		-1.22227-1.22601-1.21702
Monaco
Angers		42.3%
31.9%		25.8%
-159
+465
-150
+405
1
1		-1.44333-1.43322-1.35530
Lyon
Nice		58.0%
19.9%		22.0%
+220
+130
+216
+130
2
3		-0.86698-0.86152-1.61440
Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain		3.6%
87.5%		8.8%
+715
-255
+680
-260
3
3		-1.67360-1.67948-2.42690
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		73.8%
10.1%		16.1%
+107
+260
+110
+250
1
1		-1.32901-1.28884-1.82728
Angers
Strasbourg		26.4%
47.1%		26.5%
+410
-136
+400
-130
0
5		-0.58607-0.60194-0.75373
Nice
Monaco		24.8%
52.2%		23.0%
+287
-105
+279
+100
2
2		-1.36230-1.34186-1.47124
Toulouse
Lyon		3.7%
86.9%		9.4%
+295
+102
+292
+105
2
1		-1.40789-1.39433-3.29954
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.70370 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.69750 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.54230
0.16140
0.15520

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.