France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+365
+103
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-115
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-270
+670
-265
+600
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-121
u3¼+102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Saint-Etienne		56.4%
22.5%		21.1%
+145
+220
+145
+210
1
1		-1.19577-1.18335-1.55452
Lens
Monaco		22.1%
58.2%		19.6%
+405
-135
+400
-135
2
0		-1.65444-1.66036-1.50801
Paris Saint-Germain
Brest		82.0%
7.7%		10.3%
-280
+875
-330
+850
4
2		-0.32011-0.31778-0.19806
Bordeaux
Marseille		29.0%
45.9%		25.2%
+650
-200
+625
-225
2
2		-1.55183-1.55519-1.37995
Saint-Etienne
Lens		40.9%
33.0%		26.1%
+265
+105
+260
+105
2
2		-1.30948-1.30280-1.34220
Montpellier
Reims		31.7%
38.6%		29.7%
+196
+155
+180
+160
3
3		-1.22428-1.21598-1.21470
Rennes
Brest		40.6%
32.8%		26.6%
+116
+260
+120
+240
1
1		-1.25801-1.24434-1.32452
Metz
Nantes		31.6%
40.9%		27.4%
+285
+110
+265
+115
0
2		-0.77579-0.81577-0.89328
Lyon
Angers		52.2%
25.6%		22.2%
-120
+355
-120
+330
0
3		-1.54314-1.50928-1.36399
Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain		7.7%
81.5%		10.8%
+1185
-385
+1100
-475
2
4		-0.24137-0.24201-0.20469
Nice
Lille		20.3%
61.2%		18.5%
+375
-115
+350
-115
4
0		-1.58875-1.55405-1.59450
Monaco
Lorient		45.9%
30.2%		24.0%
-108
+325
-110
+325
0
1		-1.47430-1.49077-1.19895
Marseille
Montpellier		37.1%
33.2%		29.6%
+105
+261
+110
+250
3
2		-0.75956-0.78845-0.99037
Lille
Metz		54.3%
23.3%		22.5%
-115
+429
-125
+410
3
3		-1.24164-1.25790-1.49366
Lorient
Saint-Etienne		31.3%
40.9%		27.9%
+240
+125
+220
+125
1
1		-1.29711-1.27357-1.27798
Angers
Strasbourg		29.6%
44.0%		26.4%
+285
+110
+275
+110
2
0		-1.37520-1.36227-1.21706
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.