France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+365
+103
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-115
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-270
+670
-265
+600
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-121
u3¼+102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Lyon		18.6%
64.6%		16.8%
+650
-249
+625
-260
1
4		-0.36746-0.37481-0.43723
Bordeaux
Nantes		36.2%
34.6%		29.2%
+300
+100
+290
+100
0
3		-0.72435-0.74661-1.05987
Lille
Lens		65.3%
18.1%		16.6%
-105
+328
-105
+300
3
0		-0.70413-0.72383-0.42619
Lyon
Monaco		44.9%
30.9%		24.3%
+175
+155
+180
+145
3
2		-1.04021-1.06459-0.80133
Saint-Etienne
Montpellier		27.0%
47.8%		25.2%
+140
+200
+150
+190
2
1		-0.90899-0.95039-1.30874
Reims
Nimes		46.8%
26.2%		27.0%
+229
+135
+230
+130
2
2		-1.05027-1.06252-1.04948
Angers
Lorient		37.0%
34.2%		28.8%
+320
-102
+340
-120
0
2		-0.71086-0.65541-1.07400
Metz
Dijon		31.2%
40.1%		28.7%
+130
+239
+110
+270
5
1		-0.86081-0.79025-1.16453
Nantes
Brest		34.9%
35.5%		29.6%
+187
+162
+165
+170
4
1		-1.08693-1.02407-1.05257
Rennes
Bordeaux		33.5%
37.5%		29.0%
-135
+400
-140
+360
0
1		-1.63671-1.57552-0.98011
Nice
Lille		20.7%
62.3%		17.0%
+690
-220
+700
-240
0
2		-0.41035-0.39545-0.47278
Lens
Paris Saint-Germain		4.3%
92.7%		3.0%
+751
-260
+700
-275
1
2		-0.35207-0.35782-0.07558
Strasbourg
Marseille		28.2%
45.2%		26.6%
+372
-123
+350
-125
1
1		-1.11014-1.10001-1.03008
Lille
Lyon		35.0%
37.1%		27.8%
+276
+105
+265
+105
3
2		-1.35926-1.34508-1.04874
Monaco
Angers		40.6%
33.6%		25.7%
-230
+725
-240
+725
1
0		-0.39371-0.39644-0.90022
Nantes
Strasbourg		30.2%
41.9%		27.9%
+260
+120
+235
+115
2
1		-1.30534-1.25713-1.19892
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.