France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+365
+103
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-115
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-270
+670
-265
+600
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-121
u3¼+102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Dijon
Rennes		29.4%
43.3%		27.3%
+800
-278
+835
-300
1
5		-0.33655-0.33402-0.83750
Bordeaux
Lorient		42.5%
30.2%		27.3%
+236
+130
+255
+105
1
4		-0.85826-0.76776-1.19670
Nimes
Lens		34.8%
36.5%		28.7%
+355
-115
+435
-140
1
2		-0.64069-0.58591-1.00821
Montpellier
Nice		39.1%
33.4%		27.5%
+156
+185
+155
+175
1
3		-1.07417-1.06031-1.09569
Paris Saint-Germain
Metz		85.5%
8.2%		6.3%
-460
+1576
-550
+1400
3
1		-0.21689-0.22125-0.15643
Brest
Saint-Etienne		34.1%
37.8%		28.1%
+265
+112
+265
+110
2
1		-1.32486-1.34228-1.07561
Marseille
Reims		34.9%
32.8%		32.3%
+110
+280
+105
+275
3
1		-0.76512-0.76947-1.05323
Lyon
Nantes		49.9%
26.2%		23.9%
-215
+630
-220
+575
2
1		-0.41284-0.42414-0.69431
Monaco
Bordeaux		35.4%
38.0%		26.6%
-175
+528
-180
+540
3
0		-0.48514-0.48977-1.03857
Metz
Reims		25.9%
44.8%		29.3%
+205
+163
+205
+160
0
0		-1.06434-1.08552-1.07712
Strasbourg
Nimes		45.7%
28.6%		25.7%
+106
+282
+110
+250
1
1		-1.06389-1.04782-1.01763
Nice
Dijon		32.8%
40.4%		26.7%
-130
+380
-125
+330
0
2		-1.59815-1.50860-0.90547
Lens
Brest		27.1%
47.6%		25.3%
+155
+185
+165
+165
1
1		-1.02652-1.02223-1.02376
Saint-Etienne
Paris Saint-Germain		6.0%
90.3%		3.7%
+825
-303
+875
-335
2
3		-0.31286-0.31120-0.10191
Lorient
Marseille		21.9%
56.4%		21.7%
+280
+105
+260
+105
2
3		-0.75152-0.76787-0.57187
Rennes
Angers		38.4%
33.1%		28.5%
-120
+415
+105
+280
3
0		-0.62568-0.76613-0.95802
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.