France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+365
+103
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-115
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-137
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-270
+670
-265
+615
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-121
u3¼+102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brest
Lorient		35.5%
34.9%		29.6%
+230
+131
+200
+135
0
1		-0.86855-0.90604-1.05182
Montpellier
Angers		38.6%
32.9%		28.5%
+167
+185
+175
+165
1
1		-1.04185-1.04519-1.03138
Lyon
Lens		63.5%
19.3%		17.2%
-140
+370
-140
+350
1
1		-1.08136-1.06981-1.04946
Lille
Paris Saint-Germain		14.4%
74.8%		10.9%
+450
-145
+375
-130
1
0		-1.74091-1.60664-1.93989
Metz
Monaco		28.1%
47.9%		24.0%
+550
-185
+560
-220
0
4		-0.46705-0.42518-0.73706
Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon		70.7%
16.7%		12.6%
+112
+225
+110
+215
4
2		-0.78658-0.79078-0.18302
Nimes
Lille		16.1%
70.6%		13.3%
+1000
-275
+950
-310
2
1		-2.41991-2.40141-1.22448
Lorient
Nantes		28.3%
44.3%		27.4%
+242
+140
+240
+130
1
1		-1.07874-1.07854-0.69973
Bordeaux
Montpellier		32.3%
39.4%		28.3%
+245
+130
+260
+115
1
3		-0.85581-0.81482-0.93239
Reims
Dijon		36.8%
31.8%		31.5%
+120
+265
+115
+250
1
0		-0.81950-0.81362-0.38210
Angers
Brest		34.4%
37.5%		28.0%
+220
+146
+210
+145
0
0		-1.06362-1.06082-0.72540
Lens
Strasbourg		22.9%
54.8%		22.3%
+173
+170
+160
+170
2
1		-1.04771-1.00761-0.79405
Marseille
Nice		45.0%
29.6%		25.4%
+135
+240
+130
+225
0
3		-1.24618-1.22762-1.21571
Rennes
Metz		38.5%
31.9%		29.6%
+120
+285
+130
+255
3
1		-0.82465-0.88150-0.38388
Monaco
Saint-Etienne		43.1%
31.9%		25.1%
-111
+360
-115
+330
4
0		-0.23874-0.24951-0.38352
Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain		7.0%
88.0%		5.0%
+1400
-425
+1300
-475
2
1		-1.56279-1.54052-2.61401
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.