France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+365
+103
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-115
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-137
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-270
+670
-265
+615
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-121
u3¼+102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Monaco		46.8%
29.4%		23.8%
+215
+150
+205
+150
0
0		-0.71960-0.72241-0.72005
Strasbourg
Rennes		32.0%
39.1%		29.0%
+277
+115
+270
+110
0
1		-0.79394-0.79025-0.59815
Nice
Lorient		37.6%
34.6%		27.8%
+200
+150
+180
+155
1
1		-0.71812-0.72668-0.69398
Metz
Lens		40.7%
30.6%		28.7%
+330
+100
+340
-110
2
2		-0.69353-0.69315-0.70334
Bordeaux
Dijon		36.5%
34.8%		28.7%
+128
+250
+120
+250
3
1		-0.32554-0.31662-0.66845
Montpellier
Nimes		47.1%
27.6%		25.3%
-108
+310
+100
+270
1
1		-0.85629-0.82675-0.72812
Brest
Marseille		24.2%
53.1%		22.7%
+327
+100
+320
-105
1
3		-0.71939-0.71670-0.37609
Saint-Etienne
Angers		31.8%
41.4%		26.8%
+225
+142
+190
+160
1
0		-0.51371-0.45508-0.83271
Lyon
Reims		41.9%
29.3%		28.9%
-185
+565
-190
+500
1
1		-1.03906-1.00634-0.70899
Rennes
Marseille		28.7%
43.8%		27.4%
+170
+195
+170
+180
0
1		-0.73842-0.71149-0.50425
Monaco
Strasbourg		35.4%
37.5%		27.1%
-120
+340
-120
+315
0
1		-1.22377-1.18283-0.66505
Reims
Nantes		36.3%
31.6%		32.1%
+220
+160
+205
+160
2
1		-0.80236-0.77616-0.62560
Lorient
Montpellier		25.1%
49.9%		25.0%
+305
-104
+295
-105
1
1		-0.75746-0.75398-0.75118
Marseille
Lille		27.6%
47.2%		25.3%
+400
-130
+460
-150
0
2		-0.30294-0.26053-0.46028
Paris Saint-Germain
Bordeaux		82.0%
10.6%		7.4%
-192
+620
-190
+600
1
0		-0.19163-0.19726-0.12167
Lens
Saint-Etienne		27.9%
46.6%		25.5%
+170
+190
+165
+170
3
2		-0.65805-0.68385-0.98345
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.