France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 27, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.8%
86.8%		9.3%


0.55
3.09		3.64


Games for Sep 22, 2024
Games for Sep 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-255
+695
-250
+650
1
1		-1.68913-1.63969-2.01590
Strasbourg
Lille		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+495
-173
+475
-170
3
3		-1.49237-1.47587-1.48957
Saint-Etienne
Nice		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+615
-202
+540
-190
0
8		-0.42796-0.47392-0.81814
Reims
Nantes		37.2%
30.7%		32.1%
+217
+145
+200
+145
2
1		-1.18003-1.14219-0.98980
Angers
Strasbourg		26.4%
47.1%		26.5%
+465
-152
+450
-150
1
1		-1.43477-1.36908-1.32693
Montpellier
Rennes		31.7%
38.6%		29.7%
+600
-220
+535
-210
0
3		-0.39711-0.44043-0.95215
Brest
Paris Saint-Germain		2.8%
90.0%		7.2%
+950
-350
+900
-350
1
3		-0.28631-0.30028-0.10493
Nice
Marseille		19.8%
57.2%		22.9%
+345
-111
+330
-120
0
2		-0.66678-0.65329-0.55785
Lille
Saint-Etienne		62.5%
16.2%		21.4%
-140
+445
-135
+400
0
1		-1.72513-1.66036-1.82201
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		73.8%
10.1%		16.1%
-128
+355
-130
+325
3
1		-0.61171-0.61982-0.30365
Rennes
Reims		29.2%
38.9%		31.9%
+130
+230
+125
+220
1
2		-1.21325-1.21295-0.94323
Nice
Angers		32.7%
40.7%		26.6%
-105
+360
-105
+325
4
1		-0.69247-0.71832-1.11764
Marseille
Toulouse		78.7%
6.7%		14.6%
+129
+220
+120
+225
3
1		-0.84781-0.83924-0.23951
Nantes
Montpellier		26.2%
45.8%		28.0%
+215
+131
+220
+130
3
1		-1.17516-1.21224-1.33888
Saint-Etienne
Brest		31.1%
41.4%		27.5%
+380
-130
+375
-135
0
4		-0.60006-0.60468-0.88259
Strasbourg
Lyon		18.8%
58.1%		23.0%
+250
+111
+290
+100
3
4		-0.77616-0.73054-0.54230
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.