German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mainz 05
Augsburg 		31.3%
43.6%		25.1%
+188
+146
+180
+145
1.26
1.53		2.79
o2¾-110
u2¾-106
o2½-140
u2½+125
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Werder Bremen
Mainz 05		36.0%
38.0%		25.9%
+237
+121
+240
+113
2
1		-1.23784-1.26805-1.02057
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hoffenheim		54.0%
23.5%		22.4%
-225
+550
-225
+550
4
1		-0.39215-0.40197-0.61552
Eint Frankfurt
Wolfsburg		30.0%
45.7%		24.3%
+166
+173
+160
+176
2
1		-0.99815-0.98763-1.20451
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig		10.8%
73.4%		15.9%
+565
-210
+590
-225
0
0		-1.60415-1.62146-1.84087
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Monchengladbach		18.7%
61.0%		20.2%
+145
+174
+135
+175
3
1		-0.92521-0.89774-1.67446
Freiburg
Bayern Munich		5.7%
83.6%		10.7%
+1400
-500
+1190
-550
0
2		-0.20404-0.21311-0.17947
RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		38.2%
35.7%		26.1%
+400
-152
+365
-150
3
2		-1.62979-1.58440-0.96341
Dortmund
Werder Bremen		66.1%
15.4%		18.5%
-107
+281
-110
+265
0
0		-1.40576-1.42912-1.68664
Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart		21.7%
56.6%		21.7%
+420
-148
+410
-160
3
3		-1.49785-1.49263-1.52772
Hoffenheim
Eint Frankfurt		29.5%
47.1%		23.4%
+375
-148
+365
-145
1
3		-0.54531-0.56065-0.75298
Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg		72.3%
11.4%		16.3%
-195
+535
-200
+535
3
2		-0.42472-0.44172-0.32379
Eint Frankfurt
Dortmund		21.6%
57.6%		20.8%
+342
-130
+315
-130
0
2		-0.59968-0.61278-0.55193
Union Berlin
Mainz 05		42.5%
31.9%		25.5%
+285
+110
+285
+105
1
1		-1.25337-1.24327-1.36563
Werder Bremen
Augsburg		34.2%
40.1%		25.7%
+176
+156
+175
+150
2
2		-1.32129-1.31744-1.35802
VfB Stuttgart
Freiburg		31.4%
43.2%		25.4%
-103
+265
-105
+275
1
3		-1.32867-1.35642-0.83982
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Borussia Monchengladbach		37.9%
36.4%		25.7%
-155
+400
-162
+400
3
2		-0.52746-0.52533-0.96956
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.