German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Dortmund
Wolfsburg		42.9%
31.6%		25.5%
+115
+232
+110
+230
3
1		-0.79452-0.78680-0.84653
Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		16.6%
63.5%		19.9%
+740
-240
+700
-270
1
5		-0.36723-0.36282-0.45487
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen		39.0%
34.8%		26.1%
+245
+129
+245
+120
1
4		-0.85769-0.83480-1.05495
Mainz 05
Eint Frankfurt		16.5%
65.0%		18.5%
+265
+110
+275
+105
3
1		-1.31498-1.34266-1.80229
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hoffenheim		48.6%
27.8%		23.6%
+207
+131
+191
+135
2
1		-1.15018-1.11039-0.72085
RB Leipzig
Bayern Munich		15.9%
65.0%		19.1%
+1050
-450
+1225
-480
1
5		-0.23427-0.22082-0.43149
Eint Frankfurt
RB Leipzig		16.5%
64.8%		18.7%
+197
+133
+205
+130
1
2		-0.87117-0.86531-0.43457
Hoffenheim
Dortmund		18.4%
61.7%		19.9%
+695
-265
+700
-290
1
1		-1.75273-1.75389-1.61666
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Augsburg		68.4%
13.8%		17.8%
-170
+540
-165
+500
2
0		-0.49489-0.51234-0.37929
Bayern Munich
Mainz 05		86.8%
4.4%		8.8%
-190
+520
-210
+540
1
2		-1.85784-1.90166-3.12995
Wolfsburg
Freiburg		41.4%
32.1%		26.5%
+225
+130
+225
+135
2
3		-0.86474-0.88138-1.13638
Freiburg
Hoffenheim		32.0%
42.6%		25.3%
+202
+151
+186
+150
1
1		-1.22598-1.26663-1.37310
Mainz 05
Wolfsburg		14.5%
66.7%		18.8%
+268
+115
+255
+110
3
4		-0.79598-0.78937-0.40437
Dortmund
Borussia Monchengladbach		36.4%
38.2%		25.4%
+106
+240
+100
+250
1
1		-1.40593-1.41186-1.37239
Augsburg
Eint Frankfurt		17.8%
62.8%		19.3%
+560
-190
+510
-190
2
2		-1.53257-1.50900-1.64289
Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart		29.6%
45.6%		24.8%
+350
-110
+365
-115
2
3		-0.67397-0.64571-0.78489
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.