German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Union Berlin
Augsburg		40.3%
33.7%		26.0%
+313
-114
+300
-110
2
1		-1.45895-1.42737-0.90984
Bayern Munich
Hoffenheim		79.0%
8.1%		12.9%
-148
+355
-155
+375
4
0		-0.54512-0.52633-0.23634
Eint Frankfurt
Freiburg		38.5%
36.0%		25.4%
+203
+135
+195
+130
3
1		-1.13769-1.12772-0.95371
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Mainz 05		70.3%
12.7%		16.9%
+177
+148
+180
+135
2
2		-1.37180-1.38962-1.77514
Wolfsburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		27.2%
48.6%		24.2%
+181
+130
+172
+125
1
0		-1.06155-1.04959-1.30262
VfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig		12.5%
70.7%		16.8%
+242
-104
+230
-105
3
2		-1.25868-1.24320-2.08072
Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart		23.2%
54.3%		22.4%
+485
-185
+490
-200
0
4		-0.46227-0.45323-0.60996
Dortmund
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		31.7%
43.4%		24.9%
+158
+158
+154
+170
4
2		-0.98147-0.95244-1.15034
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayern Munich		10.4%
74.7%		14.9%
+1550
-685
+1525
-730
0
2		-0.16992-0.17366-0.29170
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen		72.0%
11.6%		16.3%
+250
-103
+240
+115
0
0		-1.46581-1.41412-1.81192
Hoffenheim
Wolfsburg		26.1%
50.1%		23.9%
+150
+195
+145
+165
2
2		-1.30763-1.37259-1.43238
Eint Frankfurt
Mainz 05		56.0%
22.6%		21.4%
+196
+138
+195
+130
1
1		-1.31811-1.36137-1.54215
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Freiburg		54.6%
22.6%		22.8%
+122
+223
+125
+212
2
2		-1.32818-1.34297-1.47968
Wolfsburg
Dortmund		24.4%
52.2%		23.4%
+870
-360
+900
-395
0
4		-0.27841-0.27182-0.64949
Hoffenheim
Borussia Monchengladbach		20.8%
58.1%		21.1%
+191
+126
+195
+125
4
4		-1.42745-1.42862-1.55685
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin		27.4%
48.3%		24.3%
+130
+228
+140
+210
2
2		-1.27783-1.28764-1.41399
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.