German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
RB Leipzig
Freiburg		60.4%
18.6%		21.0%
+166
+155
+155
+157
1
4		-0.96354-0.99004-1.68378
FC Koln
Bayern Munich		3.4%
89.5%		7.1%
+1300
-600
+1300
-625
1
5		-0.18233-0.18645-0.11111
Augsburg
Union Berlin		26.3%
49.6%		24.1%
+147
+165
+137
+165
0
4		-1.00931-1.01401-0.70211
Dortmund
Werder Bremen		66.1%
15.4%		18.5%
+107
+232
+110
+230
2
0		-0.75769-0.77568-0.41406
Hoffenheim
Borussia Monchengladbach		20.8%
58.1%		21.1%
-153
+375
-160
+350
0
4		-1.58802-1.55107-0.54359
VfB Stuttgart
Eint Frankfurt		26.8%
50.3%		22.8%
-115
+270
-115
+270
2
2		-1.50458-1.50819-1.47709
Union Berlin
Mainz 05		42.5%
31.9%		25.5%
+360
-144
+350
-130
3
1		-1.56131-1.53493-0.85510
Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg		72.3%
11.4%		16.3%
-205
+475
-210
+465
1
0		-0.43212-0.43799-0.32379
Borussia Monchengladbach
Augsburg		64.1%
16.7%		19.2%
+265
-102
+247
-105
1
3		-0.71801-0.71525-1.78958
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim		21.9%
56.3%		21.8%
+487
-187
+485
-210
0
1		-0.46248-0.43405-0.57490
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart		57.1%
21.2%		21.7%
+225
+108
+230
+125
1
3		-0.76712-0.79931-1.54914
Eint Frankfurt
Dortmund		21.6%
57.6%		20.8%
+330
-135
+325
-140
2
3		-0.58904-0.58638-0.55193
Wolfsburg
Freiburg		41.4%
32.1%		26.5%
+264
+107
+250
+107
1
1		-1.33003-1.34669-1.32701
Dortmund
Borussia Monchengladbach		36.4%
38.2%		25.4%
-113
+297
-110
+290
0
1		-1.41247-1.39380-0.96270
RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		38.2%
35.7%		26.1%
+224
+108
+215
+110
1
4		-0.76630-0.77879-1.03033
FC Koln
Union Berlin		26.1%
50.7%		23.2%
+166
+175
+190
+159
2
2		-1.25688-1.26929-1.45934
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.