German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 20, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Eint Frankfurt
Augsburg 		53.6%
24.2%		22.1%
+189
+148
+180
+155
1.93
1.23		3.16
o2½-123
u2¾-120
o2½-115
u2½+100
Borussia Monchengladbach
Dortmund 		30.2%
45.5%		24.3%
+640
-265
+590
-260
1.28
1.64		2.92
o3¾-103
u3¾-115
o3½-115
u3½+105
Games for Apr 19, 2025
Games for Apr 26, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Freiburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		20.0%
58.6%		21.3%
+248
+110
+240
+110
3
0		-1.28240-1.27075-1.60879
Eint Frankfurt
Dortmund		21.6%
57.6%		20.8%
+400
-155
+360
-150
1
3		-0.52746-0.55956-0.55193
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Freiburg		54.6%
22.6%		22.8%
-195
+550
-195
+525
3
2		-0.44124-0.45631-0.60422
VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim		30.6%
44.9%		24.4%
-138
+331
-130
+320
3
0		-0.57948-0.59820-1.18397
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin		27.4%
48.3%		24.3%
+283
+110
+270
+105
1
2		-0.76873-0.76466-0.72755
Augsburg
Wolfsburg		15.6%
64.9%		19.5%
+214
+132
+230
+125
3
1		-1.16379-1.22268-1.85527
RB Leipzig
FC Koln		74.0%
10.8%		15.1%
-220
+600
-216
+570
5
1		-0.40855-0.41870-0.30044
Wolfsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		23.0%
53.7%		23.3%
+995
-325
+900
-350
0
2		-0.29346-0.30171-0.62174
Hoffenheim
Eint Frankfurt		29.5%
47.1%		23.4%
+255
+110
+250
+100
1
3		-0.76275-0.73631-0.75298
Dortmund
Werder Bremen		66.1%
15.4%		18.5%
-125
+305
-125
+300
2
1		-0.61709-0.62624-0.41406
FC Koln
Borussia Monchengladbach		11.7%
72.9%		15.4%
+340
-118
+330
-120
3
3		-1.35635-1.35147-1.86879
Mainz 05
Bayern Munich		3.3%
89.5%		7.2%
+1125
-420
+1025
-440
1
8		-0.24525-0.25229-0.11142
Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart		29.6%
45.6%		24.8%
+562
-195
+600
-210
0
2		-0.44301-0.43348-0.78489
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim		21.9%
56.3%		21.8%
+262
-108
+250
-105
1
2		-0.69007-0.71584-0.57490
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Koln		69.5%
13.5%		17.1%
-270
+765
-270
+700
2
0		-0.34516-0.36612-0.36417
VfB Stuttgart
Wolfsburg		23.7%
53.1%		23.2%
+124
+226
+123
+223
3
2		-0.83697-0.84095-1.44058
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.10691 
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.11372 
DRatings31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.25730
-0.15039
-0.14358

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.