German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 26, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Freiburg
Wolfsburg 		25.0%
50.5%		24.5%
+205
+125

1.09
1.65		2.74
o2¾-105
u2¾-115

Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		9.8%
75.4%		14.8%
+775
-290

0.88
2.66		3.54
o2¾+102
u2¾-122

Dortmund
Hoffenheim 		52.5%
24.9%		22.6%
-120
+275

1.87
1.22		3.09
o3¼+100
u3¼-120

Mainz 05
Bayern Munich 		3.3%
89.5%		7.2%
+1000
-435

0.67
3.65		4.32
o3½+102
u3½-122

RB Leipzig
Eint Frankfurt 		55.8%
22.6%		21.6%
+180
+130

2.00
1.21		3.21
o3-120
u3+100

Games for Apr 25, 2025
Games for Apr 27, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Borussia Monchengladbach
Dortmund 		30.2%
45.5%		24.3%
+650
-270
+660
-290
2.92
o3½-125
u3¾-112
o3½-125
u3½+115
1st H
17:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
VfB Stuttgart
Wolfsburg		23.7%
53.1%		23.2%
+124
+226
+123
+223
3
2		-0.83697-0.84095-1.44058
Borussia Monchengladbach
Mainz 05		66.1%
15.5%		18.5%
+315
-106
+308
-115
1
1		-1.34369-1.37722-1.68832
Dortmund
Union Berlin		59.4%
19.6%		21.0%
+112
+245
+105
+255
2
0		-0.78274-0.75683-0.52133
Bayern Munich
Freiburg		79.0%
7.9%		13.1%
-208
+535
-215
+550
2
2		-1.62872-1.64517-2.02943
Freiburg
Augsburg		46.4%
28.7%		24.9%
+198
+140
+193
+140
1
2		-0.90133-0.91434-1.24932
Hoffenheim
Dortmund		18.4%
61.7%		19.9%
+525
-225
+525
-230
3
2		-1.86298-1.87725-1.69184
Wolfsburg
Eint Frankfurt		36.4%
37.7%		25.8%
+200
+147
+200
+141
2
2		-1.26603-1.26528-1.35402
RB Leipzig
Bayern Munich		15.9%
65.0%		19.1%
+350
-128
+350
-149
1
2		-0.58315-0.56028-0.43149
FC Koln
VfB Stuttgart		22.9%
55.4%		21.7%
+865
-300
+785
-307
1
1		-1.75446-1.76761-1.52579
Mainz 05
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.0%
76.9%		14.0%
+995
-335
+1000
-380
1
2		-0.28627-0.27531-0.26233
Eint Frankfurt
Freiburg		38.5%
36.0%		25.4%
+200
+150
+190
+145
3
3		-1.25082-1.25917-1.36889
Borussia Monchengladbach
RB Leipzig		24.0%
53.2%		22.8%
+760
-301
+800
-314
0
2		-0.31987-0.31618-0.63092
Dortmund
Wolfsburg		42.9%
31.6%		25.5%
+110
+230
+109
+230
1
1		-1.39598-1.38850-1.36653
Union Berlin
Hoffenheim		27.1%
49.0%		23.9%
+300
-107
+300
-110
1
0		-1.41931-1.42737-1.30634
Augsburg
Mainz 05		35.0%
39.3%		25.7%
+315
-105
+300
-110
0
1		-0.69581-0.69547-0.93295
Werder Bremen
FC Koln		34.9%
40.0%		25.1%
+205
+145
+197
+150
1
0		-1.14486-1.12316-1.05346
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.28340 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.28284 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.42112
-0.13772
-0.13828

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.