German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u4-122

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Mainz 05		70.3%
12.7%		16.9%
-156
+425
-172
+440
3
0		-0.51715-0.49541-0.35193
Eint Frankfurt
Wolfsburg		30.0%
45.7%		24.3%
+258
+120
+260
+110
0
2		-0.80390-0.78008-0.78382
Dortmund
Hoffenheim		52.5%
24.9%		22.6%
+115
+215
+110
+205
3
1		-0.78761-0.79164-0.64447
Freiburg
Eint Frankfurt		28.3%
47.9%		23.8%
+245
+122
+215
+125
0
0		-1.28049-1.28884-1.43691
FC Koln
Werder Bremen		31.8%
43.7%		24.5%
+171
+160
+165
+155
1
2		-0.97910-0.98602-0.82849
Wolfsburg
Dortmund		24.4%
52.2%		23.4%
+361
-140
+340
-140
0
1		-0.56122-0.58656-0.64949
Mainz 05
Augsburg		31.3%
43.6%		25.1%
+169
+164
+160
+160
1
2		-0.99425-1.00518-0.82956
RB Leipzig
Borussia Monchengladbach		43.8%
31.3%		25.0%
-168
+435
-175
+400
1
0		-0.48890-0.50213-0.82629
Hoffenheim
Union Berlin		39.6%
34.6%		25.8%
+240
+118
+240
+105
2
0		-1.24660-1.27465-0.92584
VfB Stuttgart
Mainz 05		47.2%
28.7%		24.1%
+171
+163
+170
+155
3
1		-1.01990-1.03502-0.75037
Augsburg
RB Leipzig		7.9%
79.1%		13.0%
+1013
-360
+875
-375
0
3		-0.26052-0.27579-0.23508
Dortmund
Freiburg		53.2%
23.9%		22.9%
+133
+221
+135
+185
4
2		-0.84632-0.89659-0.63160
Union Berlin
Wolfsburg		20.7%
56.7%		22.6%
+250
+131
+240
+120
1
2		-0.83914-0.82707-0.56747
Hoffenheim
FC Koln		49.3%
27.6%		23.1%
+218
+129
+205
+125
3
1		-1.16440-1.15474-0.70686
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayern Munich		12.8%
70.1%		17.0%
+420
-162
+400
-171
2
2		-1.58572-1.58192-1.77078
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin		66.1%
15.0%		18.9%
+107
+265
+110
+255
3
0		-0.76106-0.78076-0.41439
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.