German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 26, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Freiburg
Wolfsburg 		25.0%
50.5%		24.5%
+200
+136

1.09
1.65		2.74
o2¾-105
u2¾-114

Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		9.8%
75.4%		14.8%
+800
-275

0.88
2.66		3.54
o2¾+102
u2¾-122

Dortmund
Hoffenheim 		52.5%
24.9%		22.6%
-125
+310

1.87
1.22		3.09
o3¼-102
u3¼-116

Mainz 05
Bayern Munich 		3.3%
89.5%		7.2%
+1210
-435

0.67
3.65		4.32
o3½-101
u3½-110

RB Leipzig
Eint Frankfurt 		55.8%
22.6%		21.6%
+194
+130

2.00
1.21		3.21
o3-120
u3+104

Games for Apr 25, 2025
Games for Apr 27, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Werder Bremen
FC Koln		34.9%
40.0%		25.1%
+205
+145
+197
+150
1
0		-1.14486-1.12316-1.05346
FC Koln
Hoffenheim		20.6%
58.8%		20.5%
+357
-132
+365
-134
1
1		-1.43284-1.42333-1.58260
Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart		21.7%
56.6%		21.7%
+640
-210
+600
-210
1
3		-0.41898-0.43348-0.56853
Bayern Munich
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		62.1%
17.8%		20.1%
+198
+142
+192
+136
0
3		-0.91001-0.89803-1.72524
RB Leipzig
Augsburg		73.1%
11.1%		15.9%
-140
+360
-150
+350
2
2		-1.50923-1.52993-1.84124
Wolfsburg
Union Berlin		47.6%
27.3%		25.1%
+230
+135
+225
+135
0
1		-0.88114-0.89450-1.29850
Freiburg
Dortmund		17.7%
62.2%		20.1%
+440
-175

0
3		-0.48794-0.47482
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig		10.8%
73.4%		15.9%
+845
-290
+800
-300
0
2		-0.32928-0.33459-0.30967
Hoffenheim
Wolfsburg		26.1%
50.1%		23.9%
+232
+112
+225
+110
2
2		-1.37433-1.37105-1.43238
Eint Frankfurt
FC Koln		54.8%
23.9%		21.3%
+153
+206
+147
+200
0
2		-1.14319-1.14347-1.43112
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayern Munich		10.4%
74.7%		14.9%
+1650
-700
+1400
-680
1
3		-0.16816-0.18054-0.29170
Werder Bremen
Mainz 05		36.0%
38.0%		25.9%
+275
+110
+290
+105
1
0		-1.35070-1.38653-1.02057
VfB Stuttgart
Freiburg		31.4%
43.2%		25.4%
+129
+225
+120
+230
3
1		-0.85428-0.82698-1.15887
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		28.7%
47.2%		24.1%
+950
-430
+925
-450
0
0		-2.08273-2.05113-1.42454
Bayern Munich
Augsburg		86.0%
4.7%		9.3%
-315
+700
-300
+720
3
2		-0.31289-0.32165-0.15085
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart		62.8%
17.4%		19.8%
+168
+160
+161
+155
2
5		-0.98313-0.97721-1.75123
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.81308 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.80604 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.14780
-0.33472
-0.34177

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.