German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 26, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Freiburg
Wolfsburg 		25.0%
50.5%		24.5%
+200
+136

1.09
1.65		2.74
o2¾-105
u2¾-114

Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		9.8%
75.4%		14.8%
+800
-275

0.88
2.66		3.54
o2¾+102
u2¾-120

Dortmund
Hoffenheim 		52.5%
24.9%		22.6%
-125
+310

1.87
1.22		3.09
o3¼-102
u3¼-116

Mainz 05
Bayern Munich 		3.3%
89.5%		7.2%
+1210
-435

0.67
3.65		4.32
o3½-101
u3½-110

RB Leipzig
Eint Frankfurt 		55.8%
22.6%		21.6%
+194
+130

2.00
1.21		3.21
o3-120
u3+104

Games for Apr 25, 2025
Games for Apr 27, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
FC Koln
Wolfsburg		15.3%
66.0%		18.7%
+405
-138
+385
-140
1
1		-1.40425-1.39614-1.67788
Freiburg
Werder Bremen		45.2%
29.8%		25.1%
+200
+140
+200
+135
1
3		-0.90899-0.90118-1.21224
Mainz 05
Eint Frankfurt		16.5%
65.0%		18.5%
+245
+124
+260
+125
0
1		-0.83644-0.82294-0.43128
Union Berlin
Bayern Munich		4.6%
86.1%		9.3%
+1650
-725
+1650
-775
0
1		-0.16451-0.16098-0.15023
Augsburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		12.0%
71.9%		16.1%
+315
-115
+300
-120
2
1		-1.44092-1.42491-2.12419
Werder Bremen
Bayern Munich		3.7%
88.5%		7.8%
+2500
-1100
+2300
-1100
1
0		-3.29279-3.21888-3.30689
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig		28.2%
47.4%		24.4%
+172
+150
+170
+145
3
2		-1.02441-1.03544-1.26723
Dortmund
FC Koln		68.3%
14.3%		17.3%
-115
+290
-115
+275
4
0		-0.65468-0.67303-0.38091
Hoffenheim
Freiburg		34.0%
40.1%		25.8%
+265
+100
+254
+105
2
3		-0.72631-0.74743-0.91349
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Monchengladbach		18.7%
61.0%		20.2%
-105
+265
-112
+280
1
3		-1.33964-1.37864-0.49398
Eint Frankfurt
RB Leipzig		16.5%
64.8%		18.7%
+685
-235
+640
-248
1
0		-2.08901-2.04810-1.79927
Union Berlin
Freiburg		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+273
+113
+260
+110
0
0		-1.25495-1.28125-1.38545
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Augsburg		68.4%
13.8%		17.8%
-192
+508
-204
+580
1
0		-0.45344-0.40928-0.37929
Wolfsburg
Mainz 05		58.4%
19.9%		21.8%
+290
+105
+277
+100
1
1		-1.29251-1.31282-1.52459
Hoffenheim
Bayern Munich		5.8%
83.7%		10.5%
+1785
-785
+1635
-805
0
3		-0.15503-0.16174-0.17831
Borussia Monchengladbach
Eint Frankfurt		44.1%
31.9%		24.0%
+375
-135
+350
-140
1
2		-0.57714-0.58445-1.14360
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.81308 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.80604 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.14780
-0.33472
-0.34177

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.