German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
FC Koln
Mainz 05		34.8%
40.2%		25.0%
+490
-170
+490
-177
1
1		-1.50765-1.49884-1.38486
Union Berlin
Borussia Monchengladbach		16.2%
64.5%		19.3%
+185
+160
+188
+150
0
0		-1.27375-1.26429-1.64532
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		15.5%
65.8%		18.7%
+316
-120
+310
-120
2
2		-1.44029-1.41535-1.67504
Wolfsburg
Freiburg		41.4%
32.1%		26.5%
+220
+132
+215
+125
2
1		-1.18807-1.19392-0.88281
Werder Bremen
Augsburg		34.2%
40.1%		25.7%
+370
-145
+353
-145
3
0		-1.58148-1.55751-1.07388
Eint Frankfurt
Bayern Munich		6.8%
82.0%		11.2%
+560
-220
+535
-230
1
2		-0.40411-0.40324-0.19877
Dortmund
RB Leipzig		26.8%
49.5%		23.7%
+430
-175
+420
-180
1
4		-0.48070-0.48441-0.70320
Mainz 05
Freiburg		20.3%
58.0%		21.7%
+145
+192
+140
+192
1
1		-1.29876-1.28620-1.52698
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Dortmund		34.7%
39.8%		25.5%
+164
+170
+156
+165
1
1		-1.31763-1.31543-1.36653
VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen		43.5%
31.5%		25.0%
-135
+348
-155
+383
1
2		-1.52943-1.61863-1.15633
Bayern Munich
Union Berlin		82.3%
6.3%		11.4%
-144
+400
-150
+400
5
1		-0.55523-0.54550-0.19532
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hoffenheim		48.6%
27.8%		23.6%
+195
+131
+205
+128
3
4		-0.86199-0.85003-1.28121
Augsburg
Eint Frankfurt		17.8%
62.8%		19.3%
+295
-105
+270
-105
1
3		-0.68866-0.70719-0.46491
Werder Bremen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		10.3%
74.4%		15.2%
+1400
-550
+1400
-550
0
5		-0.20124-0.20727-0.29549
Eint Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart		40.7%
34.6%		24.7%
+525
-205
+515
-210
0
3		-0.42892-0.43878-1.06250
Hoffenheim
Mainz 05		50.6%
26.2%		23.2%
+290
-112
+285
-115
1
4		-0.66629-0.66937-1.34082
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.92669 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.90057 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.34465
-0.41796
-0.44408

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.