German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich
3.5%
88.8%
7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57
4.24
o3¾-120
u4-122

Games for Nov 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Borussia Monchengladbach
37.9%
36.4%
25.7%
+149
+184
+140
+170
3
2
-0.92902-0.91925-0.96956
Augsburg
Dortmund
10.4%
74.5%
15.0%
+900
-320
+840
-320
3
4
-0.29877-0.31472-0.29418
Werder Bremen
FC Koln
34.9%
40.0%
25.1%
+280
+105
+260
+100
1
7
-0.73464-0.74360-0.91564
Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
21.7%
56.6%
21.7%
+218
+130
+207
+130
1
1
-1.28714-1.30623-1.52772
Freiburg
Wolfsburg
25.0%
50.5%
24.5%
+244
+129
+224
+130
0
6
-0.84982-0.87400-0.68254
Schalke 04
Eint Frankfurt
14.7%
67.4%
17.8%
+809
-275
+750
-275
0
3
-0.33152-0.35799-0.39409
Hoffenheim
Union Berlin
39.6%
34.6%
25.8%
+260
+126
+235
+125
1
3
-0.84292-0.85590-1.06187
Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig
56.2%
21.8%
22.0%
-109
+285
-115
+275
1
1
-1.46516-1.46477-1.51286
Union Berlin
Freiburg
27.9%
47.1%
25.0%
+322
+116
+306
+110
1
4
-0.78539-0.78209-0.75296
Eint Frankfurt
Mainz 05
56.0%
22.6%
21.4%
+160
+175
+150
+175
1
1
-1.28616-1.31539-1.54215
Bayern Munich
Schalke 04
87.5%
4.0%
8.5%
-435
+1248
-500
+1150
2
0
-0.22730-0.22965-0.13318
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
72.0%
11.6%
16.3%
-103
+278
-114
+277
2
1
-0.69957-0.67662-0.32818
FC Koln
Hertha BSC
30.5%
45.7%
23.8%
+185
+160
+185
+148
0
2
-0.97570-0.95207-0.78246
Wolfsburg
Hoffenheim
40.7%
33.4%
25.8%
+263
+115
+246
+110
2
1
-1.29792-1.28334-0.89823
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
15.5%
65.8%
18.7%
+335
-115
+350
-125
0
2
-0.64603-0.62140-0.41910
Dortmund
Borussia Monchengladbach
36.4%
38.2%
25.4%
+105
+250
+105
+230
2
4
-1.27300-1.24327-0.96270
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.