German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u4-122

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mainz 05
Schalke 04		35.6%
38.2%		26.2%
+105
+270
+110
+245
0
1		-1.33139-1.27758-0.96336
Hoffenheim
Eint Frankfurt		29.5%
47.1%		23.4%
+398
-146
+375
-145
2
4		-0.54562-0.56694-0.75298
Augsburg
Union Berlin		26.3%
49.6%		24.1%
+430
-132
+410
-125
2
2		-1.34577-1.30993-1.42229
Freiburg
RB Leipzig		13.5%
68.6%		18.0%
+390
-124
+360
-120
1
3		-0.60534-0.63522-0.37736
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Koln		69.5%
13.5%		17.1%
+131
+216
+125
+220
2
1		-0.86105-0.84139-0.36417
Hertha BSC
VfB Stuttgart		25.5%
51.6%		22.9%
+265
+111
+262
+105
1
2		-0.76688-0.75734-0.66207
Werder Bremen
Bayern Munich		3.7%
88.5%		7.8%
+1531
-575
+1400
-600
1
6		-0.18385-0.19819-0.12168
Dortmund
Wolfsburg		42.9%
31.6%		25.5%
+140
+199
+125
+210
0
2		-1.11786-1.17896-1.15192
FC Koln
Freiburg		21.5%
56.9%		21.6%
+450
-155
+455
-155
0
2		-0.51669-0.53219-0.56366
Union Berlin
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		13.4%
68.9%		17.8%
+263
+130
+230
+135
0
5		-0.85071-0.89465-0.37302
Bayern Munich
Hertha BSC		85.3%
5.1%		9.5%
-360
+975
-400
+969
3
2		-0.26713-0.26192-0.15871
Eint Frankfurt
Augsburg		53.6%
24.2%		22.1%
-130
+350
-134
+338
2
1		-0.59140-0.60719-0.62289
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim		59.9%
19.3%		20.7%
+158
+177
+145
+185
3
1		-0.96648-0.92857-0.51191
Wolfsburg
Mainz 05		58.4%
19.9%		21.8%
+283
+100
+293
+100
3
0		-1.37733-1.39667-0.53866
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Monchengladbach		18.7%
61.0%		20.2%
+203
+132
+210
+130
1
3		-0.85956-0.86377-0.49398
Schalke 04
Hertha BSC		26.3%
50.0%		23.6%
+366
-123
+355
-125
1
2		-0.61101-0.62893-0.69281
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.