German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolfsburg
Union Berlin		47.6%
27.3%		25.1%
+235
+130
+225
+128
0
1		-0.86422-0.86379-1.29850
Eint Frankfurt
Werder Bremen		52.2%
25.2%		22.5%
+198
+133
+195
+130
0
2		-0.87681-0.87601-1.37690
Dortmund
Freiburg		53.2%
23.9%		22.9%
+115
+235
+115
+220
4
1		-0.79951-0.81577-0.63160
Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig		14.0%
68.3%		17.7%
+392
-145
+400
-155
1
3		-0.54971-0.53236-0.38126
Bayern Munich
Augsburg		86.0%
4.7%		9.3%
-265
+750
-245
+675
3
1		-0.35552-0.38072-0.15085
Mainz 05
Dortmund		9.6%
76.0%		14.4%
+400
-150
+410
-158
1
3		-0.54550-0.53590-0.27463
Union Berlin
Freiburg		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+318
-101
+311
-105
2
1		-1.45740-1.45380-1.27740
VfB Stuttgart
Eint Frankfurt		26.8%
50.3%		22.8%
+163
+157
+160
+155
0
1		-0.97859-0.97862-0.68673
Augsburg
Hoffenheim		21.0%
57.6%		21.4%
+216
+140
+205
+135
1
1		-1.23374-1.27022-1.54192
RB Leipzig
Borussia Monchengladbach		43.8%
31.3%		25.0%
+139
+190
+135
+195
0
1		-1.09766-1.11957-1.16267
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart		57.1%
21.2%		21.7%
+125
+236
+125
+225
4
3		-0.84318-0.85207-0.56091
Dortmund
RB Leipzig		26.8%
49.5%		23.7%
+160
+170
+155
+170
0
2		-1.02775-1.03277-0.70320
Bayern Munich
Union Berlin		82.3%
6.3%		11.4%
-305
+897
-320
+875
1
1		-1.75423-1.74997-2.16954
Freiburg
Mainz 05		48.7%
27.0%		24.3%
+372
-118
+370
-120
2
2		-1.32148-1.30608-1.41564
Wolfsburg
Augsburg		56.3%
21.3%		22.4%
+206
+152
+210
+145
0
1		-0.95055-0.93843-1.54520
Borussia Monchengladbach
Werder Bremen		62.9%
17.5%		19.6%
+207
+126
+210
+125
4
2		-1.15598-1.16803-0.46426
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86422 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86379 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.29850
-0.43428
-0.43471

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.