Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Torino
Lazio		11.0%
73.0%		16.0%
+262
+131
+250
+130
0
2		-0.85118-0.86071-0.31407
Sassuolo
Inter		11.4%
72.5%		16.0%
+984
-370
+1000
-408
2
1		-2.41006-2.44139-2.17112
Atalanta
Hellas Verona		62.5%
17.3%		20.1%
-109
+346
-107
+325
1
0		-0.67053-0.69321-0.46944
Milan
Cagliari		67.7%
13.8%		18.5%
-110
+375
-110
+375
3
1		-0.66810-0.66649-0.39054
Roma
Torino		64.9%
16.2%		18.9%
+159
+226
+145
+225
1
1		-1.12896-1.16909-1.66776
Napoli
Bologna		64.0%
16.0%		20.0%
+113
+263
+105
+265
0
0		-1.31145-1.31972-1.60804
Fiorentina
Udinese		38.2%
32.8%		29.0%
+137
+227
+125
+223
2
0		-0.88453-0.85390-0.96330
Cagliari
Atalanta		8.4%
78.6%		13.0%
+700
-227
+690
-245
0
2		-0.38924-0.38431-0.24140
Juventus
Sassuolo		66.5%
14.6%		18.9%
-117
+329
-120
+300
2
4		-1.47832-1.43687-1.92545
Hellas Verona
Milan		14.4%
65.8%		19.8%
+815
-248
+745
-260
0
1		-0.36047-0.37525-0.41850
Bologna
Hellas Verona		25.8%
49.3%		24.8%
+127
+249
+125
+244
0
0		-1.24473-1.22061-1.39243
Torino
Salernitana		55.9%
21.3%		22.8%
+125
+294
+120
+265
3
0		-0.82652-0.82771-0.58128
Atalanta
Fiorentina		59.3%
19.6%		21.1%
+186
+173
+163
+170
2
3		-1.00275-1.03699-1.62918
Udinese
Cagliari		37.1%
34.7%		28.2%
+162
+200
+160
+180
0
0		-1.20969-1.22693-1.26585
Napoli
Genoa		64.2%
15.7%		20.1%
-144
+500
-150
+445
2
2		-1.38553-1.40011-1.60450
Milan
Inter		25.4%
50.3%		24.3%
+260
+118
+245
+115
1
5		-0.80290-0.80932-0.68800
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.00704 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.00816 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.89950
0.10754
0.10866

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.