Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Atalanta
Udinese		59.1%
22.1%		18.8%
-125
+325

6
2		-0.63025-0.52662
Sampdoria
Napoli		20.0%
61.7%		18.4%
+775
-230
+760
-260
0
1		-0.38699-0.37330-0.48360
Napoli
Juventus		26.6%
49.9%		23.5%
+401
-125
+400
-125
1
1		-1.32343-1.29320-1.44868
Roma
Milan		32.3%
44.6%		23.1%
+235
+125
+220
+120
1
3		-0.83529-0.83605-0.80766
Genoa
Sassuolo		28.5%
50.0%		21.5%
+422
-125
+385
-140
1
1		-1.36449-1.38633-1.53768
Hellas Verona
Spezia		43.9%
31.1%		25.0%
+122
+245
+115
+240
2
1		-0.82319-0.81340-0.82287
Cagliari
Sampdoria		32.5%
43.6%		23.9%
+390
-125
+360
-125
2
1		-1.61179-1.57557-1.12405
Spezia
Napoli		16.1%
67.7%		16.2%
+1205
-360
+1100
-400
1
0		-2.58336-2.53376-1.82561
Sampdoria
Roma		21.5%
61.1%		17.4%
+600
-205
+550
-205
1
1		-1.56647-1.54239-1.74640
Torino
Inter		13.7%
73.6%		12.7%
+1200
-375
+1075
-375
0
1		-0.25926-0.28374-0.30665
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona		36.3%
37.4%		26.4%
+144
+200
+140
+195
1
1		-1.28125-1.27236-1.33268
Bologna
Sassuolo		28.9%
49.8%		21.3%
+240
+115
+235
+115
3
0		-1.25285-1.25713-1.24064
Cagliari
Juventus		12.8%
73.5%		13.7%
+1500
-475
+1450
-475
0
2		-0.22713-0.24042-0.30812
Atalanta
Genoa		64.0%
20.2%		15.8%
-200
+543
-205
+525
0
0		-1.59032-1.57441-1.84459
Napoli
Milan		33.2%
42.1%		24.8%
+275
+105
+260
+115
1
0		-1.35348-1.31729-1.10386
Hellas Verona
Torino		41.4%
33.8%		24.8%
+247
+125
+250
+120
0
1		-0.84597-0.83082-1.08376
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.