Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Roma
Napoli		30.8%
43.7%		25.4%
+292
+106
+275
+100
1
1		-1.29503-1.30383-1.36928
Torino
Lazio		11.0%
73.0%		16.0%
+501
-155
+450
-160
1
1		-1.41399-1.41321-1.83327
Bologna
Juventus		6.8%
80.5%		12.6%
+875
-275
+895
-305
1
1		-1.72082-1.66163-2.06838
Salernitana
Sampdoria		13.2%
68.3%		18.5%
+393
-119
+360
-125
2
1		-1.61169-1.57557-2.02617
Sassuolo
Cagliari		45.9%
29.6%		24.6%
+178
+162
+145
+175
0
1		-0.98369-1.06369-1.21909
Genoa
Milan		10.2%
74.2%		15.6%
+870
-258
+850
-280
0
2		-0.34990-0.35458-0.29849
Inter
Spezia		77.7%
8.2%		14.0%
-313
+1000
-335
+945
3
1		-0.29850-0.31260-0.25224
Sampdoria
Bologna		35.4%
38.3%		26.2%
+235
+144
+235
+140
0
2		-0.90604-0.91252-0.95894
Milan
Torino		68.6%
13.5%		17.9%
-116
+388
-115
+360
0
0		-1.31056-1.25846-1.72210
Salernitana
Roma		4.9%
85.2%		9.9%
+916
-289
+800
-300
1
2		-0.32105-0.33798-0.16063
Atalanta
Sassuolo		61.0%
19.3%		19.7%
+128
+212
+120
+220
1
2		-1.15195-1.19290-1.64356
Fiorentina
Napoli		17.9%
59.6%		22.5%
+387
-123
+350
-125
3
2		-1.60092-1.55452-1.72126
Lazio
Genoa		64.1%
16.1%		19.8%
+113
+290
-105
+310
4
1		-0.77594-0.71803-0.44484
Juventus
Cagliari		75.6%
9.1%		15.3%
-165
+590
-175
+560
2
1		-0.48998-0.50177-0.27936
Hellas Verona
Inter		10.3%
73.0%		16.6%
+700
-225
+625
-235
0
2		-0.38488-0.40329-0.31404
Bologna
Milan		10.4%
74.1%		15.5%
+975
-300
+975
-350
0
0		-1.73818-1.75603-1.86117
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.48122 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.45629 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.10332
-0.62210
-0.64703

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.