Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Napoli
Fiorentina		47.5%
28.3%		24.2%
+100
+295
+100
+285
2
1		-0.71631-0.74156-0.74446
Spezia
Hellas Verona		26.4%
50.4%		23.2%
+500
-170
+470
-175
0
4		-0.49107-0.50340-0.68577
Udinese
Sampdoria		35.3%
38.9%		25.8%
+260
+130
+250
+120
3
3		-1.20728-1.21456-1.35666
Lazio
Bologna		57.4%
23.4%		19.2%
+130
+220
+130
+210
0
3		-1.19962-1.18159-1.45269
Inter
Sassuolo		58.3%
23.1%		18.6%
-160
+400
-150
+355
2
1		-0.51777-0.55930-0.53995
Juventus
Torino		68.8%
15.9%		15.3%
-105
+359
-110
+350
1
0		-0.69293-0.69021-0.37362
Genoa
Salernitana		51.9%
26.1%		22.0%
+190
+170
+170
+180
0
1		-1.02346-1.07852-1.34427
Cagliari
Napoli		18.1%
64.7%		17.1%
+1181
-420
+1250
-400
0
2		-0.24649-0.23993-0.43515
Roma
Lazio		34.3%
42.2%		23.4%
+197
+145
+205
+135
2
3		-0.93024-0.90084-0.86173
Fiorentina
Udinese		38.6%
34.7%		26.7%
+151
+205
+155
+185
1
0		-0.95368-0.99013-0.95241
Salernitana
Sassuolo		16.8%
68.2%		15.1%
+740
-249
+690
-245
0
1		-0.36962-0.39060-0.38321
Sampdoria
Juventus		14.3%
71.0%		14.8%
+731
-275
+640
-245
2
3		-0.34345-0.39248-0.34265
Hellas Verona
Genoa		40.3%
34.5%		25.2%
+180
+173
+180
+170
3
3		-1.20932-1.18026-1.37769
Atalanta
Inter		32.3%
45.2%		22.4%
+300
-109
+275
-110
2
2		-1.37888-1.39707-1.49410
Milan
Spezia		63.9%
18.8%		17.3%
-165
+519
-195
+550
2
1		-0.49040-0.46291-0.44809
Udinese
Roma		21.8%
58.8%		19.4%
+675
-210
+700
-220
0
1		-0.40414-0.39964-0.53139
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.