Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Sassuolo
Atalanta 		13.9%
69.5%		16.7%
+588
-197
+600
-225
3.65
o2¾-110
u2¾-105
o2½-140
u2½+130
2nd H
69:00		3
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bologna
Torino		36.5%
39.7%		23.7%
+275
+113
+245
+125
1
2		-0.79021-0.86140-0.92274
Milan
Udinese		55.1%
23.2%		21.7%
-110
+340
-120
+350
1
1		-1.34915-1.31513-1.52813
Salernitana
Fiorentina		16.2%
66.7%		17.1%
+1175
-350
+1100
-350
0
4		-0.26490-0.27604-0.40537
Sampdoria
Genoa		37.2%
38.4%		24.4%
+140
+265
+125
+240
3
1		-0.88353-0.86074-0.98943
Torino
Cagliari		34.8%
41.2%		23.9%
+140
+225
+140
+225
1
1		-1.21019-1.16607-1.42929
Genoa
Juventus		13.1%
73.1%		13.8%
+1737
-450
+1500
-500
0
2		-0.22123-0.23081-0.31316
Lazio
Sampdoria		54.9%
24.6%		20.5%
+125
+220
+125
+225
3
1		-0.83850-0.84807-0.59997
Sassuolo
Spezia		47.3%
30.1%		22.6%
+135
+210
+135
+215
2
2		-1.29426-1.27068-1.48775
Fiorentina
Bologna		42.6%
33.0%		24.4%
+160
+195
+155
+190
3
2		-0.98179-0.98438-0.85348
Atalanta
Napoli		39.2%
37.0%		23.8%
+160
+175
+165
+170
3
2		-0.98500-1.01145-0.93573
Inter
Roma		44.7%
32.3%		23.0%
-105
+295
-120
+300
3
0		-0.69716-0.65362-0.80439
Salernitana
Milan		9.1%
79.7%		11.2%
+1350
-375
+1200
-475
0
2		-0.25219-0.24200-0.22642
Udinese
Lazio		20.8%
59.3%		20.0%
+491
-160
+480
-165
4
4		-1.42026-1.41116-1.60979
Napoli
Sassuolo		48.9%
28.7%		22.4%
-115
+320
-120
+310
2
2		-1.39187-1.38617-1.49740
Milan
Genoa		60.1%
21.4%		18.5%
-180
+525
-180
+500
3
0		-0.47151-0.48836-0.50941
Spezia
Inter		12.1%
75.3%		12.6%
+1650
-650
+1600
-650
0
2		-0.17742-0.19236-0.28378
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.48122 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.45629 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.10332
-0.62210
-0.64703

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.