Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Salernitana
Juventus		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%
+1300
-450
+1250
-460
0
2		-0.23668-0.24833-0.11930
Milan
Cagliari		67.7%
13.8%		18.5%
-150
+480
-150
+440
1
0		-0.53483-0.56138-0.39054
Fiorentina
Inter		11.8%
70.5%		17.7%
+601
-210
+625
-230
1
1		-1.57142-1.57707-1.73031
Udinese
Napoli		13.8%
65.7%		20.5%
+575
-180
+530
-185
1
2		-0.47052-0.48259-0.41933
Torino
Genoa		31.8%
42.7%		25.5%
+151
+215
+145
+200
0
1		-1.18019-1.15119-0.85142
Spezia
Sassuolo		19.1%
59.9%		21.0%
+358
-125
+325
-120
1
4		-0.61140-0.65589-0.51261
Inter
Torino		75.6%
9.6%		14.8%
-133
+450
-135
+400
1
1		-1.36039-1.33184-1.91190
Roma
Udinese		57.1%
20.3%		22.6%
+135
+230
+130
+215
1
1		-1.25453-1.25846-1.48890
Genoa
Atalanta		8.7%
78.0%		13.2%
+850
-274
+800
-290
0
0		-1.71674-1.67879-2.02125
Napoli
Hellas Verona		54.4%
21.3%		24.3%
+124
+264
+110
+250
2
1		-0.82164-0.79239-0.60903
Bologna
Fiorentina		23.2%
53.1%		23.7%
+494
-160
+450
-160
0
1		-0.50712-0.53464-0.63339
Juventus
Sampdoria		72.6%
10.6%		16.7%
-135
+465
-150
+420
3
1		-0.56544-0.56156-0.31954
Cagliari
Spezia		36.7%
36.0%		27.3%
+186
+186
+165
+180
0
2		-1.07043-1.08028-1.02098
Sassuolo
Salernitana		69.1%
13.1%		17.8%
-110
+299
-125
+300
2
2		-1.41795-1.44987-1.72800
Milan
Napoli		34.6%
37.9%		27.4%
+275
+116
+260
+115
1
0		-1.34950-1.33029-1.06028
Spezia
Juventus		5.6%
82.7%		11.7%
+1137
-346
+975
-360
0
1		-0.27966-0.29347-0.18988
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.22530 
Sportsbooks31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.22816 
DRatings31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.26628
-0.04098
-0.03813

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.