Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated 1 min ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
12/14/2025 07:45 PM	Juventus Bologna	75.2% 9.5%	15.3%	+130 +245 +128 +232	1 0	-0.86657-0.86176	-0.28523
12/14/2025 05:00 PM	Inter Genoa	74.4% 10.1%	15.5%	-208 +685 -200 +625	2 1	-0.42724-0.44457	-0.29617
12/14/2025 02:00 PM	Hellas Verona Fiorentina	29.2% 43.1%	27.6%	+346 +101 +315 +108	2 1	-1.52878-1.44316	-1.23090
12/14/2025 02:00 PM	Napoli Udinese	57.8% 18.7%	23.5%	-115 +410 -110 +385	0 1	-1.65402-1.59944	-1.67793
12/14/2025 11:30 AM	Sassuolo Milan	16.0% 64.8%	19.2%	+630 -202 +685 -200	2 2	-1.50887-1.54595	-1.64932
12/13/2025 07:45 PM	Cagliari Atalanta	8.4% 78.6%	13.0%	+860 -285 +810 -300	1 2	-0.33332-0.33343	-0.24140
12/08/2025 07:45 PM	Milan Torino	68.6% 13.5%	17.9%	-152 +494 -145 +460	3 2	-0.54032-0.56370	-0.37627
12/08/2025 05:00 PM	Genoa Udinese	28.3% 45.1%	26.6%	+250 +146 +229 +151	2 1	-1.28688-1.23701	-1.26277
12/07/2025 07:45 PM	Juventus Napoli	45.3% 28.1%	26.6%	+220 +170 +220 +159	1 2	-1.02644-0.98854	-1.27043
12/07/2025 05:00 PM	Bologna Lazio	11.8% 71.7%	16.5%	+260 +133 +242 +145	1 1	-1.14936-1.14319	-1.79927
12/07/2025 02:00 PM	Roma Cagliari	64.1% 16.5%	19.3%	-144 +525 -154 +480	0 1	-1.86704-1.79890	-1.80072
12/06/2025 07:45 PM	Atalanta Hellas Verona	62.5% 17.3%	20.1%	-155 +500 -150 +467	1 3	-1.82542-1.77526	-1.75423
12/06/2025 02:00 PM	Fiorentina Sassuolo	33.1% 40.6%	26.2%	+168 +198 +165 +190	1 3	-1.11773-1.09880	-0.90079
11/30/2025 07:45 PM	Napoli Roma	35.0% 38.6%	26.4%	+218 +190 +210 +165	1 0	-1.18345-1.17633	-1.05119
11/30/2025 05:00 PM	Fiorentina Atalanta	14.2% 67.7%	18.1%	+495 -157 +480 -150	0 2	-0.52760-0.54578	-0.39078
11/29/2025 07:45 PM	Lazio Milan	30.0% 44.4%	25.7%	+490 -148 +445 -150	0 1	-0.55071-0.55977	-0.81263

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	1	1-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.86657
Sportsbooks	1	1-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.86176
DRatings	1	1-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.28523	0.58134 0.57653

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)	26.0	5.8	6.2	84.1	55.9%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)	24.7	5.0	8.3	82.4	40.1%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)	22.0	6.4	9.6	75.7	4.0%	97.5%	2.5%	0.0%
4	Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)	19.5	8.8	9.7	68.2	0.0%	80.7%	18.1%	0.0%
5	Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)	17.8	10.8	9.4	62.7	0.0%	18.4%	74.2%	0.0%
6	Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)	15.6	12.9	9.5	56.3	0.0%	1.9%	46.3%	0.0%
7	Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)	14.2	14.4	9.4	52.1	0.0%	0.3%	10.3%	0.0%
8	Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)	13.4	12.8	11.7	52.1	0.0%	0.7%	12.8%	0.1%
10	Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)	12.6	15.0	10.4	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	0.8%
11	Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)	13.1	16.2	8.7	48.0	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.6%
12	Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)	12.8	13.6	11.7	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	7.7%	0.5%
13	Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)	11.5	14.0	12.5	47.1	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	1.0%
14	Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)	11.0	16.6	10.5	43.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	8.7%
15	Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)	11.9	19.4	6.7	42.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	15.3%
16	Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)	11.1	18.1	8.8	42.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	15.2%
17	Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)	9.8	17.8	10.4	39.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.