MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 1, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez
34.7%
65.3%
+130
-142
+132
-140
+1½-180
-1½+164
+1½-185
-1½+170
3.34
4.92
8.26
o6½-105
u6+103
o6½+105
u6+100
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Cole Ragans
Corbin Burnes
47.6%
52.4%
+142
-153
+138
-146
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-173
-1½+155
4.49
4.74
9.23
o7+103
u7-120
o7+105
u6½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Luis Severino
Freddy Peralta
47.2%
52.8%
+128
-139
+127
-135
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+160
4.50
4.80
9.30
o7½+100
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-115
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Undecided Undecided
Mike King
47.9%
52.1%
+143
-156
+144
-154
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-164
-1½+150
4.26
4.48
8.74
o7-105
u7-115
o7+105
u7-115
Games for Sep 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
55.0%
45.0%
+102
-112
+100
-108
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+176
3
1
-0.72619-0.71219-0.59738
Cleveland Indians
Houston Astros
37.6%
62.4%
+120
-132
+128
-135
+1½-172
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+155
2
8
-0.58717-0.56729-0.47167
Washington Nationals
Texas Rangers
42.7%
57.3%
+173
-189
+181
-187
+1½-125
-1½+108
+1½-115
-1½+110
0
6
-0.44476-0.43578-0.55614
San Francisco Giants
Boston Red Sox
48.6%
51.4%
+108
-118
+108
-115
+1½-190
-1½+165

3
1
-0.75417-0.74790-0.72208
Chicago Cubs
New York Mets
44.2%
55.8%
+101
-111
+103
-109
+1½-198
-1½+173
+1½-200
-1½+177
6
7
-0.66563-0.66503-0.58257
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
61.8%
38.2%
+102
-112
+100
-107

-1½+155
+1½-175
2
7
-0.66116-0.67666-0.96131
Colorado Rockies
Miami Marlins
47.0%
53.0%
+152
-166
+156
-170
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+125
4
5
-0.49218-0.48268-0.63422
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
66.9%
33.1%
-136
+125
-134
+130
-1½+115
+1½-133
-1½+117
+1½-130
8
0
-0.57167-0.56488-0.40258
Cleveland Indians
Houston Astros
27.5%
72.5%
+163
-178
+161
-170
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-135
-1½+118
3
2
-0.98730-0.97204-1.29091
Washington Nationals
Texas Rangers
40.9%
59.1%
+177
-194
+177
-183
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+110
1
0
-1.03950-1.02647-0.89482
San Francisco Giants
Boston Red Sox
48.6%
51.4%
+137
-149
+140
-150
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-153
-1½+135
2
6
-0.53363-0.52736-0.66503
Chicago Cubs
New York Mets
42.6%
57.4%
-122
+112
-116
+112
-1½+145
+1½-163
-1½+146
+1½-165
1
0
-0.61967-0.63038-0.85449
Colorado Rockies
Miami Marlins
48.3%
51.7%
+125
-136
+132
-132
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+155
1
4
-0.57167-0.56393-0.66033
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
58.3%
41.7%
+136
-148
+140
-147
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-160
-1½+141
2
0
-0.87895-0.88719-0.54012
Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres
42.9%
57.1%
+131
-143
+131
-140
+1½-168
-1½+148
+1½-170
-1½+150
2
6
-0.55137-0.55511-0.55991
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Angels
51.3%
48.7%
-197
+179
-205
+193
-1½-128
+1½+110
-1½-130
+1½+115
2
1
-0.43201-0.41065-0.66670
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.57686 
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.58755 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.70005
-0.12320
-0.11250

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.