MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 1, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Cole Ragans
Corbin Burnes
47.6%
52.4%
+129
-140
+133
-140
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+165
4.49
4.74
9.23
o7+105
u6½+110
o7+100
u6½+105
Overall Bet Value Active
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Luis Severino
Freddy Peralta
47.2%
52.8%
+131
-143
+134
-141
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+155
4.50
4.80
9.30
o7½+103
u7½-120
o7½+100
u7½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
AJ Smith-Shawver
Mike King
47.9%
52.1%
+164
-179
+165
-177
+1½-139
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+125
4.26
4.48
8.74
o7½+100
u7½-115
o7½+105
u7+105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 30, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Houston Astros (70-50)
33.1%
66.9%
+124
-135
+126
-135
+1½-185
-1½+167
+1½-190
-1½+175
8.26
o6½-118
u6½+100
o6½-110
u6½+100
4th
BOT
3
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Arizona Diamondbacks
Seattle Mariners
40.9%
59.1%
+135
-147
+139
-144
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-155
-1½+151
1
3
-0.53941-0.53589-0.52567
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels
44.4%
55.6%
-103
-107
+100
-107

+1½-200
-1½+180
16
5
-0.70249-0.70991-0.81229
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
32.6%
67.4%
+133
-145
+134
-143
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
4
3
-0.86669-0.86586-1.12178
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
45.4%
54.6%
+102
-112
+104
-110
+1½-210
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+187
5
1
-0.72619-0.72685-0.78972
Cleveland Indians
Atlanta Braves
40.8%
59.2%
+148
-162
+152
-158
+1½-142
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+128
4
2
-0.92958-0.93344-0.89668
New York Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers
47.8%
52.2%
-112
+102
-108
+104
-1½+142
+1½-162
-1½+146
+1½-160
15
3
-0.66116-0.66479-0.73860
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox
49.3%
50.7%
-188
+172
-190
+181
-1½-120
+1½+103
-1½-118
+1½+110
7
8
-1.02085-1.04418-0.67972
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
52.0%
48.0%
-104
-106
+101
-106
+1½-213
-1½+183
+1½-210
-1½+192
5
6
-0.68852-0.67645-0.73320
Houston Astros
Colorado Rockies
60.2%
39.8%
-205
+186
-205
+185
-1½-150
+1½+136
-1½-155
+1½+140
12
4
-0.41885-0.42006-0.50700
Chicago Cubs
Boston Red Sox
39.8%
60.2%
-110
+100
-111
+103
-1½+141
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-157
0
17
-0.71668-0.72654-0.50700
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
38.7%
61.3%
+126
-137
+128
-134
+1½-171
-1½+155
+1½-172
-1½+155
11
4
-0.83570-0.83536-0.94959
Cincinnati Reds
Texas Rangers
55.8%
44.2%
+104
-114
+106
-112
+1½-194
-1½+169
+1½-192
-1½+180
8
4
-0.73560-0.73635-0.58304
Oakland Athletics
Baltimore Orioles
59.8%
40.2%
+170
-186
+182
-184
+1½-120
-1½+103
+1½-120
-1½+110
0
7
-0.45075-0.43654-0.91083
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets
46.1%
53.9%
-136
+125
-133
+128
-1½+132
+1½-150
-1½+125
+1½-135
7
4
-0.57167-0.57006-0.77349
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
54.5%
45.5%
-142
+130
-138
+135
-1½+117
+1½-125
-1½+120
+1½-135
4
2
-0.55443-0.55036-0.60778
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
32.6%
67.4%
+128
-139
+135
-140
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
0
3
-0.56198-0.54782-0.39408
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.30955 
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.32768 
DRatings11-0 (1.000)0-0.58239
-0.27284
-0.25471

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.