MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Bryan Woo
Andrew Heaney
50.4%
49.6%
-119
+123
-124
+124
-1½+145
+1½-142
-1½+132
+1½-145
5.21
5.17
10.38
o7½-113
u8-115
o7½-115
u8-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Volatility Bet Value Active
PostponedWashington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Jake Irvin
Shota Imanaga
47.7%
52.3%
+183
-199
+185
-190
+1½-121
-1½+101
+1½-123
-1½+110
4.92
5.17
10.09
o8+100
u8-120
o7½-110
u7½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Luis Gil
Joey Estes
48.9%
51.1%
-172
+157
-170
+155
-1½-105
+1½-108
-1½-107
+1½-105
4.79
4.91
9.70
o8½-105
u9-111
o9+100
u8½+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Antonio Senzatela
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
34.4%
65.6%
+322
-370
+331
-380
+1½+154
-1½-165
+1½+160
-1½-175
4.23
5.85
10.08
o8½-110
u8½-108
o8½-110
u8½-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Sean Burke
Yu Darvish
42.6%
57.4%
+278
-320
+290
-325
+1½+125
-1½-135
+1½+131
-1½-150
3.77
4.54
8.31
o7½-115
u8-110
o8-110
u8-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Zebby Matthews
Kutter Crawford
41.5%
58.5%
-112
+102
-107
+100
+1½-215
-1½+185
-1½+155
+1½-170
4.53
5.42
9.95
o8-105
u8-115
o8-110
u8-110
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Zack Wheeler
Tylor Megill
47.2%
52.8%
-140
+129
-137
+133
-1½+125
+1½-143
-1½+125
+1½-140
4.36
4.66
9.02
o7+105
u7-125
o7+105
u6½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
47.8%
52.2%
-135
+130
-137
+128
-1½+130
+1½-137
-1½+121
+1½-135
10.85
o7½+105
u7½-117
o7½+100
u7½-110
6th
TOP
1
8
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
36.4%
63.6%
-102
+102
+102
+101
-1½+150
+1½-160

9.09
o7½-115
u8-112
o8+105
u8-105
6th
TOP
2
0
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
50.1%
49.9%
+110
-120
+108
-115
+1½-182
-1½+162
+1½-190
-1½+175
9.48
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8½-115
4th
BOT
3
0
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
54.0%
46.0%
-188
+172
-190
+175
-1½-120
+1½+102
-1½-120
+1½+105
8.78
o8½-120
u8½+102
o9+100
u8½+100
4th
TOP
1
1
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
46.5%
53.5%
+117
-127
+115
-119
+1½-181
-1½+161
+1½-180
-1½+178
8.95
o7½-108
u7½-112
o7½+100
u7½-105
4th
TOP
0
0
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
32.1%
67.9%
+123
-122
+122
-128
+1½-171
-1½+170
+1½-175
-1½+160
8.59
o8-112
u8½-105
o8-110
u8½-115
2nd
TOP
1
0
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
40.6%
59.4%
+231
-262
+235
-265
+1½+111
-1½-130
+1½+112
-1½-125
9.04
o8-110
u8½-110
o8-110
u8-110
2nd
BOT
0
0
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
57.3%
42.7%
-103
-107
-103
-106
-1½+163
+1½-183
-1½+170
+1½-185
7.98
o6½-112
u7-105
o6½-110
u6½-105
2nd
TOP
1
0
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
45.7%
54.3%
+115
-113
+120
-130
+1½-190
-1½+175
+1½-180
-1½+170
8.86
o7½-105
u7½-110
o7½-105
u7½-105
2nd
BOT
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
56.3%
43.7%
+156
-170
+155
-165
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+120
12
10
-0.96006-0.95078-0.57437
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tampa Bay Rays
33.6%
66.4%
-110
+100
-106
+105
-1½+155
+1½-172
-1½+155
+1½-165
4
5
-0.71668-0.72021-0.41009
Seattle Mariners
Pittsburgh Pirates
54.0%
46.0%
+103
-113
+106
-111
+1½-208
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
3
5
-0.65676-0.65377-0.77672
New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
63.6%
36.4%
-207
+187
-200
+195
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-125
+1½+112
3
0
-0.41658-0.41110-0.45198
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
39.9%
60.1%
+227
-257
+240
-255
+1½+120
-1½-138
+1½+120
-1½-135
2
3
-0.35404-0.34321-0.50918
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago Cubs
52.7%
47.3%
+115
-125
+114
-118
+1½-180
-1½+162
+1½-180
-1½+165
5
6
-0.60825-0.62235-0.74870
Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers
52.9%
47.1%
-117
+107
-115
+107
-1½+140
+1½-158
-1½+145
+1½-155
3
2
-0.63974-0.64352-0.63643
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
43.0%
57.0%
+217
-244
+230
-250
+1½+105
-1½-123
+1½+110
-1½-120
3
13
-0.36794-0.35364-0.56236
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
53.6%
46.4%
+129
-140
+133
-138
+1½-167
-1½+147
+1½-160
-1½+150
1
5
-0.55881-0.55399-0.76828
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
49.0%
51.0%
+107
-117
+108
-115
+1½-210
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+190
0
6
-0.63974-0.64124-0.67401
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
55.9%
44.1%
-133
+122
-130
+128
-1½+123
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
4
6
-0.81855-0.82798-0.81787
Oakland Athletics
New York Mets
49.6%
50.4%
+170
-186
+178
-185
+1½-123
-1½+105
+1½-123
-1½+105
7
6
-1.01377-1.03125-0.70094
Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers
50.7%
49.3%
-136
+125
-133
+127
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+120
+1½-138
1
2
-0.83144-0.83105-0.70662
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
39.4%
60.6%
+113
-123
+120
-121
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+173
13
2
-0.77696-0.79050-0.93105
Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels
51.6%
48.4%
+100
-110
+102
-106
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+192
9
2
-0.71668-0.71266-0.66142
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
47.7%
52.3%
-235
+210
-230
+210
-1½-145
+1½+125
-1½-144
+1½+130
10
2
-0.37834-0.38037-0.74064
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks126-6 (0.500)0-0.66224 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.65632 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.69251
-0.03027
-0.03618

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.