MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 27, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Nick Martinez
Jameson Taillon
51.6%
48.4%
+123
-134
+125
-130
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
3.94
3.77
7.71
o6½+101
u6½-120
o6½+105
u6½-125
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Garrett Crochet
Undecided Undecided
57.8%
42.2%
+159
-194
+175
-184
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+115
4.96
4.14
9.10
o7½+100
u7½-120
o7½+100
u7½-115
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Ranger Suarez
Trevor Williams
50.7%
49.3%
-183
+167
-174
+165
-1½-105
+1½-105
-1½-105
+1½-110
4.80
4.73
9.53
o8-117
u8+100
o8-120
u8+100
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Jared Jones
Carlos Rodon
32.4%
67.6%
+152
-166
+152
-165
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+122
3.78
5.60
9.38
o7½-115
u7½-105
o8+100
u7½+100
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Adam Oller
Jose Berrios
38.7%
61.3%
+178
-195
+181
-195
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+112
4.06
5.25
9.31
o8-115
u8-103
o8-110
u8-105
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Ronel Blanco
Joey Cantillo
55.9%
44.1%
+107
-117
+112
-116
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+176
4.50
3.87
8.37
o7½-115
u7½-102
o8-105
u8-115
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Taj Bradley
Nick Pivetta
54.9%
45.1%
+120
-130
+120
-130
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+165
5.41
4.90
10.31
o8-110
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Brady Singer
Max Fried
33.3%
66.7%
+157
-172
+165
-175
+1½-135
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+117
2.82
4.54
7.36
o7-121
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-115
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Sean Manaea
Frankie Montas
42.9%
57.1%
-109
-101
-111
+103
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+150
+1½-165
3.92
4.66
8.58
o7½-110
u7½-107
o7½-115
u7½-105
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Undecided Undecided
Cal Quantrill
60.8%
39.2%
-185
+153
-185
+172
-1½-125
+1½+105
-1½-130
+1½+110
5.65
4.51
10.16
o11½-110
u11½-110
o11½-115
u11½-105
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Cade Povich
Pablo Lopez
39.2%
60.8%
+142
-155
+146
-152
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+141
4.76
5.90
10.66
o8-110
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Jacob deGrom
Reid Detmers
39.3%
60.7%
-143
+131
-141
+133
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+117
+1½-130
4.91
6.03
10.94
o7½+100
u7½-118
o7½+100
u7½-120
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Yu Darvish
Merrill Kelly
62.6%
37.4%
+112
-122
+110
-120
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+160
4.44
3.14
7.58
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½+100
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
JP Sears
Undecided Undecided
52.8%
47.2%
+145
-177
+152
-160
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-152
-1½+135
4.79
4.50
9.29
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½-105
u7½-115
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Miles Mikolas
Landen Roupp
40.0%
60.0%
+112
-122
+116
-118
+1½-200
-1½+175
+1½-185
-1½+175
3.65
4.71
8.36
o7-120
u7+102
o7½+100
u7½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 26, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres
46.3%
53.7%
-110
+100
-110
+108


4
6
-0.71668-0.73693-0.62191
Boston Red Sox
Cincinnati Reds
42.3%
57.7%
-112
+102
-114
+108
-1½+135
+1½-154
-1½+136
+1½-150
4
3
-0.66116-0.64318-0.86088
Seattle Mariners
Miami Marlins
47.8%
52.2%
-168
+154
-165
+155
-1½-104
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-115
9
0
-0.48737-0.48848-0.73710
Baltimore Orioles
Houston Astros
34.6%
65.4%
-137
+126
-135
+132
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
1
5
-0.83570-0.84707-0.42508
Toronto Blue Jays
Cleveland Indians
54.1%
45.9%
+124
-135
+131
-136
+1½-167
-1½+147
+1½-165
-1½+150
3
6
-0.57499-0.56031-0.77890
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
41.6%
58.4%
-170
+156
-164
+160
-1½-105
+1½-111
-1½+100
+1½-110
10
2
-0.48268-0.48190-0.87695
Tampa Bay Rays
Pittsburgh Pirates
61.6%
38.4%
-102
-108
+103
-108
+1½-208
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+186
3
4
-0.67930-0.66719-0.95631
Kansas City Royals
Texas Rangers
49.5%
50.5%
+131
-143
+133
-138
+1½-164
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+150
0
6
-0.55137-0.55399-0.68401
Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies
37.5%
62.5%
+231
-260
+226
-250
+1½+115
-1½-130
+1½+115
-1½-130
1
12
-0.34946-0.35729-0.46956
New York Mets
Chicago Cubs
51.1%
48.9%
-121
+111
-120
+114
-1½+125
+1½-142

1
8
-0.76791-0.77347-0.71601
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
53.8%
46.2%
+109
-119
+110
-114
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-195
-1½+175
4
9
-0.63156-0.63864-0.77111
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
57.8%
42.2%
+148
-162
+152
-159
+1½-140
-1½+126
+1½-140
-1½+126
5
1
-0.92958-0.93491-0.54851
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers
33.5%
66.5%
+153
-167
+166
-165
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-125
-1½+115
3
2
-0.94874-0.97692-1.09306
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
40.7%
59.3%
-145
+133
-141
+139
-1½+115
+1½-132
-1½+115
+1½-120
5
6
-0.86669-0.87476-0.52329
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres
48.9%
51.1%
+145
-158
+142
-150
+1½-154
-1½+135
+1½-160
-1½+141
5
9
-0.51073-0.52396-0.67101
Washington Nationals
Colorado Rockies
46.4%
53.6%
-120
+110
-118
+114
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+122
+1½-135
11
5
-0.62755-0.62235-0.76888
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks95-4 (0.556)0-0.69779 
Sportsbooks95-4 (0.556)0-0.69287 
DRatings96-3 (0.667)0-0.61119
0.08660
0.08168

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.