Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
72.1%		16.6%
+400
-160

2
3		-0.53234-0.32660
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar		13.2%
68.5%		18.3%
+820
-333

1
4		-0.31154-0.37853
Twente
Ajax		5.6%
83.5%		10.9%
+510
-233

0
2		-0.41154-0.18038
Groningen
Zwolle		48.3%
26.0%		25.7%
+245
+105

0
2		-0.76123-1.34688
PSV Eindhoven
Sparta Rotterdam		66.1%
15.5%		18.4%
-325
+730

3
1		-0.31124-0.41412
Feyenoord
Heerenveen		51.8%
24.2%		23.9%
+105
+215

0
2		-1.20724-1.41774
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard		50.3%
26.1%		23.6%
+115
+215

0
0		-1.32923-1.44227
Ajax
Groningen		70.7%
11.1%		18.2%
-160
+420

2
2		-1.47063-1.70534
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht		22.2%
55.7%		22.1%
+300
-114

1
1		-1.33964-1.51127
Zwolle
Willem II		32.2%
42.6%		25.3%
+140
+195

2
1		-0.91599-1.13401
AZ Alkmaar
Twente		64.7%
15.6%		19.7%
+170
+155

3
2		-1.02910-0.43567
Heracles Almelo
PSV Eindhoven		13.0%
69.2%		17.8%
+2000
-1300

1
4		-0.12586-0.36792
RKC Waalwijk
Feyenoord		6.5%
80.9%		12.6%
+1400
-600

0
2		-0.19218-0.21249
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar		15.8%
62.5%		21.7%
+350
-122

0
3		-0.63637-0.47050
Utrecht
Twente		41.6%
32.6%		25.8%
+325
-120

0
2		-0.64582-1.12184
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord		36.8%
36.8%		26.4%
+120
+200

3
2		-0.83822-1.00032
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.