Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 4, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Willem II
Heerenveen 		23.9%
52.8%		23.3%
+500
-190

1.11
1.78		2.89
o2½-115
u2½-101

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Groningen
Feyenoord		21.1%
54.5%		24.5%
+650
-244

1
4		-0.40866-0.60787
RKC Waalwijk
AZ Alkmaar		4.8%
84.6%		10.6%
+1100
-455

2
2		-1.94024-2.24517
Twente
Heracles Almelo		32.8%
40.5%		26.7%
-112
+295

1
2		-1.42770-0.90426
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven		55.9%
21.7%		22.3%
+440
-190

2
0		-1.73812-0.58073
Heerenveen
Utrecht		28.8%
46.2%		25.0%
+300
-111

0
2		-0.68762-0.77234
RKC Waalwijk
Zwolle		20.4%
57.4%		22.2%
+250
+105

0
2		-0.76424-0.55540
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard		36.5%
37.6%		25.9%
+146
+195

3
0		-0.94755-1.00753
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax		18.5%
59.9%		21.6%
+280
-105

2
2		-1.32246-1.53438
Feyenoord
Twente		56.5%
21.0%		22.5%
+185
+151

6
2		-1.08572-0.57169
Fortuna Sittard
Groningen		19.6%
57.4%		22.9%
+340
-110

0
1		-0.69933-0.55439
Heracles Almelo
Heerenveen		28.8%
45.3%		25.9%
+330
-120

1
1		-1.33522-1.35270
PSV Eindhoven
RKC Waalwijk		79.3%
7.5%		13.2%
-335
+700

3
0		-0.31858-0.23188
Zwolle
Sparta Rotterdam		30.0%
45.5%		24.4%
+390
-141

1
1		-1.40552-1.40944
Ajax
Zwolle		83.4%
5.7%		10.9%
-180
+490

1
0		-0.48576-0.18164
Utrecht
Willem II		48.8%
27.0%		24.2%
+112
+260

3
2		-0.79410-0.71801
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven		15.4%
65.7%		18.9%
+1000
-455

1
2		-0.24710-0.41957
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.