Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fortuna Sittard
Utrecht		19.5%
59.5%		21.0%
+550
-192
+630
-205
5
2		-1.92005-2.03953-1.63645
Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven		29.2%
45.9%		24.9%
+380
-159
+395
-160
0
3		-0.53623-0.53686-0.77873
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam		81.6%
6.6%		11.8%
-123
+330
-160
+435
2
0		-0.62854-0.53649-0.20281
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
72.1%		16.6%
+275
+105
+230
+110
0
1		-0.77816-0.79025-0.32660
Zwolle
RKC Waalwijk		48.2%
27.0%		24.8%
+151
+177
+150
+175
1
1		-1.28645-1.29048-1.39453
Groningen
Twente		40.1%
32.0%		27.9%
+730
-286
+950
-320
0
2		-0.34872-0.32379-1.14025
Heracles Almelo
Feyenoord		15.4%
64.5%		20.1%
+1600
-714
+1400
-600
2
5		-0.18073-0.20332-0.43838
RKC Waalwijk
Fortuna Sittard		20.5%
57.1%		22.4%
+400
-150
+415
-150
2
3		-0.55961-0.56017-0.56030
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen		57.1%
21.0%		21.9%
-400
+950
-410
+850
0
1		-2.39284-2.30209-1.55946
Willem II
Zwolle		34.0%
40.3%		25.7%
+320
-114
+315
+100
1
0		-1.50629-1.47521-1.07990
Heerenveen
Willem II		43.5%
31.0%		25.5%
+240
+129
+250
+125
2
1		-1.27090-1.30416-0.83326
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar		50.9%
24.7%		24.3%
+160
+162
+160
+160
1
2		-1.01388-1.00518-1.39675
Zwolle
Groningen		19.7%
57.3%		23.0%
+290
+103
+290
+100
0
0		-1.23381-1.28359-1.46885
Fortuna Sittard
Heracles Almelo		26.4%
48.9%		24.6%
+250
+117
+225
+130
2
2		-1.23145-1.22758-1.40072
Feyenoord
RKC Waalwijk		75.7%
9.0%		15.3%
-455
+1050
-480
+1125
3
2		-0.24909-0.24001-0.27810
Twente
PSV Eindhoven		13.0%
69.7%		17.3%
+625
-286
+700
-300
1
6		-0.34984-0.33543-0.36088
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.