Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 6 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/30/2022 04:45 PM	Zwolle Ajax	4.2% 86.9%	8.9%	+1204 +600 +1400 -650	0 3	-0.88037-0.19152	-0.14076
04/24/2022 12:30 PM	Utrecht Feyenoord	21.3% 56.2%	22.4%	+700 -262 +675 -275	1 2	-0.35057-0.36164	-0.57602
04/24/2022 12:30 PM	Heracles Almelo Groningen	24.8% 48.6%	26.6%	+370 -110 +340 -115	1 0	-1.56332-1.53234	-1.39425
04/24/2022 10:15 AM	Vitesse Willem II	54.9% 22.1%	23.1%	+140 +228 +105 +265	0 1	-1.20424-1.34508	-1.51095
04/23/2022 06:00 PM	Zwolle RKC Waalwijk	48.2% 27.0%	24.8%	+155 +195 +155 +185	2 0	-0.95852-0.98556	-0.72915
04/23/2022 04:45 PM	Heerenveen AZ Alkmaar	13.2% 68.5%	18.3%	+769 -254 +750 -275	1 2	-0.36136-0.35988	-0.37853
04/22/2022 06:00 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Twente	29.6% 45.8%	24.6%	+615 -185 +500 -165	0 2	-0.46164-0.52492	-0.78062
04/19/2022 04:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Vitesse	17.8% 61.6%	20.6%		1 0		-1.72429
04/16/2022 04:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Fortuna Sittard	36.5% 37.6%	25.9%	+164 +189 +165 +175	0 3	-1.08693-1.06372	-0.97763
04/10/2022 06:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar Zwolle	71.7% 11.6%	16.6%	-127 +379 -130 +375	1 2	-1.59544-1.60664	-2.15089
04/10/2022 02:45 PM	Feyenoord Heracles Almelo	56.0% 20.8%	23.1%	-260 +723 -230 +585	4 1	-0.35528-0.41312	-0.57930
04/10/2022 12:30 PM	RKC Waalwijk PSV Eindhoven	5.4% 83.7%	10.8%	+1674 -575 +1800 -650	0 2	-0.18109-0.19439	-0.17755
04/10/2022 10:15 AM	Groningen Heerenveen	35.8% 35.4%	28.8%	+249 +127 +240 +125	1 3	-0.84765-0.86074	-1.03933
04/09/2022 06:00 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Ajax	4.8% 85.6%	9.6%	+2740 -887 +2500 -1100	1 2	-0.13643-0.13615	-0.15559
04/09/2022 04:45 PM	Fortuna Sittard Utrecht	19.5% 59.5%	21.0%	+663 -232 +650 -250	1 1	-1.63399-1.65595	-1.56112
04/03/2022 12:30 PM	Heerenveen Sparta Rotterdam	41.0% 33.4%	25.6%	+250 +128 +235 +125	1 1	-1.22305-1.22806	-1.36223

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.