Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 14, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax 		4.8%
85.6%		9.6%
+320
-132

0.69
3.23		3.92
o3-122
u3+103

Games for Mar 13, 2026
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sparta Rotterdam
AZ Alkmaar		9.5%
75.7%		14.7%
+575
-200
+555
-210
0
2		-0.44920-0.44044-0.27809
Ajax
Twente		79.0%
7.7%		13.3%
+183
+140
+160
+155
1
3		-0.92216-0.98559-2.56110
Utrecht
Heracles Almelo		41.4%
32.1%		26.5%
+169
+175
+145
+175
3
1		-0.99590-0.94819-0.88182
RKC Waalwijk
Vitesse		8.8%
76.0%		15.2%
+500
-188
+460
-190
2
0		-1.82257-1.77490-2.43338
Heerenveen
Feyenoord		18.1%
60.8%		21.1%
+1400
-412
+1150
-475
1
6		-0.21365-0.24182-0.49770
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse		48.7%
26.2%		25.1%
+140
+190
+135
+190
2
0		-0.92158-0.90515-0.72013
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard		83.3%
5.7%		10.9%
-155
+380
-200
+480
0
0		-1.51345-1.60654-2.21494
Feyenoord
Utrecht		47.0%
28.1%		24.9%
-140
+350
-135
+320
5
1		-0.58727-0.60373-0.75577
PSV Eindhoven
RKC Waalwijk		79.3%
7.5%		13.2%
-375
+900
-375
+875
4
0		-0.28467-0.28711-0.23188
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen		25.9%
50.4%		23.7%
+210
+120
+210
+120
3
1		-1.17912-1.18123-1.34908
Utrecht
Zwolle		50.2%
26.2%		23.6%
+140
+175
+130
+185
0
1		-1.05085-1.09832-1.33884
AZ Alkmaar
RKC Waalwijk		80.6%
6.6%		12.8%
-155
+425
-165
+410
3
1		-0.53091-0.52379-0.21552
Zwolle
Twente		26.5%
49.6%		23.9%
+605
-245
+610
-250
1
3		-0.39109-0.38825-0.70152
Feyenoord
Sparta Rotterdam		61.1%
18.3%		20.6%
-150
+390
-150
+375
2
2		-1.46716-1.47333-1.58061
Heerenveen
Utrecht		28.8%
46.2%		25.0%
+315
-118
+320
-125
2
0		-1.46885-1.48709-1.24570
PSV Eindhoven
Vitesse		45.1%
29.8%		25.1%
-155
+420
-150
+385
3
1		-0.53537-0.56256-0.79596
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.29197 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (1.000)1 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.36055
-0.06858

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.