Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 6 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/03/2022 12:30 PM	Heracles Almelo Fortuna Sittard	39.7% 33.7%	26.6%	+241 +132 +185 +150	2 0	-1.24074-1.09551	-0.92281
04/02/2022 07:00 PM	Willem II Feyenoord	12.0% 70.9%	17.0%	+1966 -667 +1500 -650	0 2	-0.16976-0.19439	-0.34353
04/02/2022 06:00 PM	Utrecht RKC Waalwijk	64.8% 15.3%	19.9%	+101 +291 -115 +315	1 1	-1.31759-1.34335	-1.61636
04/02/2022 06:00 PM	Vitesse AZ Alkmaar	19.8% 57.7%	22.5%	+457 -137 +425 -150	1 3	-0.56593-0.55982	-0.55002
04/02/2022 04:45 PM	PSV Eindhoven Twente	61.6% 18.1%	20.3%	+100 +303 -120 +310	3 3	-1.34232-1.38617	-1.59425
04/02/2022 02:30 PM	Ajax Groningen	70.7% 11.1%	18.2%	-335 +1034 -385 +1000	3 1	-0.28190-0.28102	-0.34699
03/20/2022 07:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar Willem II	70.4% 12.2%	17.4%	-159 +483 -165 +480	2 2	-1.41919-1.41116	-1.75014
03/20/2022 03:45 PM	RKC Waalwijk Vitesse	8.8% 76.0%	15.2%	+560 -189 +490 -185	2 1	-1.91630-1.82486	-2.43338
03/20/2022 03:45 PM	Fortuna Sittard PSV Eindhoven	9.5% 76.2%	14.2%	+1916 -675 +1800 -750	0 5	-0.16816-0.17326	-0.27181
03/20/2022 01:30 PM	Feyenoord Ajax	13.6% 67.8%	18.6%	+588 -227 +510 -210	2 3	-0.39637-0.44217	-0.38893
03/20/2022 11:15 AM	Groningen Utrecht	32.0% 40.2%	27.7%	+320 -110 +350 -125	3 1	-1.47033-1.55452	-1.13822
03/19/2022 07:00 PM	Zwolle Twente	26.5% 49.6%	23.9%	+538 -175 +500 -180	0 1	-0.48833-0.49389	-0.70152
03/18/2022 07:00 PM	Heracles Almelo Heerenveen	28.8% 45.3%	25.9%	+240 +126 +195 +140	0 2	-0.84562-0.92402	-0.79133
03/13/2022 07:00 PM	Twente AZ Alkmaar	11.2% 72.1%	16.6%	+400 -110 +400 -130	1 0	-1.61974-1.65910	-2.18631
03/13/2022 03:45 PM	Feyenoord Zwolle	64.5% 16.0%	19.5%	-200 +550 -210 +550	2 1	-0.44732-0.44158	-0.43920
03/13/2022 01:30 PM	Vitesse Heracles Almelo	47.6% 26.9%	25.5%	+265 +105 +185 +150	0 0	-1.30745-1.24643	-1.36477

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.