Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 6 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
03/13/2022 01:30 PM	PSV Eindhoven Utrecht	52.2% 24.7%	23.0%	-140 +360 -135 +340	1 0	-0.57174-0.60475	-0.64919
03/13/2022 11:15 AM	Willem II Fortuna Sittard	34.1% 40.0%	25.9%	+235 +128 +215 +135	0 1	-0.86800-0.90387	-0.91542
03/12/2022 08:00 PM	Heerenveen RKC Waalwijk	60.0% 18.2%	21.8%	+190 +159 +180 +150	0 0	-1.26104-1.27379	-1.52468
03/06/2022 07:00 PM	Zwolle Fortuna Sittard	33.3% 41.4%	25.3%	+170 +180 +160 +170	1 0	-1.01382-1.00343	-1.09904
03/06/2022 03:45 PM	RKC Waalwijk Ajax	2.8% 90.1%	7.1%	+5000 -2445	2 3	-0.07042	-0.10439
03/06/2022 11:15 AM	Heracles Almelo PSV Eindhoven	13.0% 69.2%	17.8%	+1467 -535 +1000 -450	1 3	-0.20564-0.25132	-0.36792
03/05/2022 08:00 PM	Groningen Feyenoord	21.1% 54.5%	24.5%	+1452 -461 +1200 -400	1 1	-1.97942-1.79878	-1.40829
03/05/2022 03:30 PM	Heerenveen Willem II	43.5% 31.0%	25.5%	+175 +177 +165 +175	0 0	-1.21049-1.21527	-1.36543
02/27/2022 07:00 PM	Utrecht Heerenveen	37.1% 36.2%	26.7%	+115 +252 +105 +250	2 1	-0.78404-0.76787	-0.99166
02/27/2022 01:30 PM	PSV Eindhoven Sparta Rotterdam	66.1% 15.5%	18.4%	-199 +653 -215 +610	2 1	-0.43245-0.43135	-0.41412
02/27/2022 11:15 AM	Feyenoord AZ Alkmaar	25.7% 49.6%	24.7%	+170 +173 +150 +170	1 2	-1.02884-1.04401	-0.70120
02/26/2022 05:45 PM	Willem II Groningen	20.4% 55.9%	23.7%	+399 -112 +425 -135	0 1	-0.65322-0.60373	-0.58141
02/26/2022 03:30 PM	Zwolle Heracles Almelo	26.6% 48.9%	24.5%	+245 +128 +265 +105	0 2	-0.84992-0.76819	-0.71627
02/25/2022 07:00 PM	Twente RKC Waalwijk	55.8% 21.1%	23.1%	+121 +247 +120 +225	2 1	-0.81667-0.83924	-0.58306
02/20/2022 03:45 PM	Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven	15.4% 65.7%	18.9%	+1733 -548 +1600 -600	1 3	-0.19254-0.20226	-0.41957
02/20/2022 03:45 PM	Vitesse Utrecht	38.4% 34.9%	26.8%	+387 -131 +355 -135	1 1	-1.41787-1.41038	-1.31789

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.