Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 6 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/20/2022 11:15 AM	Groningen Zwolle	48.3% 26.0%	25.7%	+253 +130 +225 +125	1 1	-1.22540-1.25836	-1.36055
02/19/2022 08:00 PM	Heracles Almelo AZ Alkmaar	11.2% 71.6%	17.2%	+790 -256 +750 -265	1 2	-0.36150-0.37086	-0.33463
02/19/2022 05:45 PM	Ajax Willem II	82.5% 6.0%	11.5%	-667 +2010 -775 +2000	1 0	-0.16648-0.17108	-0.19231
02/13/2022 03:45 PM	Twente Ajax	12.2% 79.8%	8.1%	+1500 -553 +1450 -600	0 5	-0.19605-0.20360	-0.22619
02/13/2022 01:30 PM	Feyenoord RKC Waalwijk	70.4% 16.4%	13.2%	-345 +1086 -425 +1100	2 0	-0.27727-0.26282	-0.35059
02/13/2022 11:15 AM	Willem II Sparta Rotterdam	33.2% 42.1%	24.8%	+313 +100 +290 -105	0 1	-0.72221-0.71812	-0.86603
02/12/2022 07:00 PM	PSV Eindhoven Vitesse	42.7% 32.3%	25.0%	-152 +447 -150 +400	5 0	-0.53444-0.55961	-0.85181
02/12/2022 05:45 PM	Fortuna Sittard Groningen	25.3% 52.4%	22.3%	+368 -110 +355 -120	1 0	-1.55917-1.56480	-1.37362
02/11/2022 07:00 PM	Utrecht Heracles Almelo	39.9% 33.6%	26.4%	+169 +182 +120 +220	0 1	-1.04954-1.21456	-1.08969
02/06/2022 03:45 PM	Heracles Almelo Ajax	11.5% 75.9%	12.7%	+1976 -714 +2500 -1000	0 3	-0.15637-0.14677	-0.27624
02/06/2022 01:30 PM	RKC Waalwijk Willem II	25.5% 52.7%	21.7%	+217 +138 +225 +125	1 3	-0.89226-0.86034	-0.63989
02/06/2022 11:15 AM	Sparta Rotterdam Feyenoord	20.7% 61.9%	17.4%	+1200 -435 +1300 -475	0 4	-0.24332-0.24228	-0.47910
02/05/2022 08:00 PM	Vitesse Twente	45.3% 31.0%	23.7%	+180 +170 +180 +165	0 3	-1.02784-1.02521	-1.17099
02/05/2022 07:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar PSV Eindhoven	37.7% 38.1%	24.2%	+280 +100 +355 -130	2 1	-1.37888-1.56552	-0.97445
02/05/2022 05:45 PM	Heerenveen Fortuna Sittard	43.3% 33.1%	23.6%	+210 +133 +180 +140	0 2	-0.87129-0.92576	-1.10518
01/23/2022 07:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard RKC Waalwijk	45.3% 30.9%	23.7%	+210 +140 +200 +140	1 2	-0.90912-0.92284	-1.17386

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.