Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 14, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax 		4.8%
85.6%		9.6%
+325
-130

0.69
3.23		3.92
o3-121
u3+102

Games for Mar 13, 2026
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
VVV-Venlo
Willem II		31.0%
44.0%		25.0%
+580
-220

2
2		-1.58533-1.38697
Groningen
Vitesse		26.9%
46.0%		27.1%
+614
-220
+600
-230
0
6		-0.40585-0.41228-0.77614
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven		15.4%
65.7%		18.9%
+1400
-494
+1075
-500
3
3		-2.05995-2.05948-1.66633
Utrecht
Ajax		7.8%
78.8%		13.4%
+848
-341
+735
-340
1
3		-0.29154-0.30659-0.23871
Feyenoord
Emmen		78.7%
7.8%		13.5%
-190
+491
-195
+460
3
1		-0.45462-0.46501-0.23958
Twente
RKC Waalwijk		55.8%
21.1%		23.1%
-130
+325
-125
+300
5
0		-0.60099-0.63605-0.58306
Fortuna Sittard
PSV Eindhoven		9.5%
76.2%		14.2%
+1959
-725
+1800
-1000
1
2		-0.15788-0.14660-0.27181
Emmen
AZ Alkmaar		4.2%
86.6%		9.2%
+867
-313
+775
-300
1
5		-0.30754-0.33930-0.14439
RKC Waalwijk
Utrecht		11.0%
72.2%		16.8%
+433
-165
+385
-165
0
2		-0.49699-0.52596-0.32592
Vitesse
Fortuna Sittard		56.4%
21.2%		22.4%
+125
+230
+120
+220
0
2		-1.21885-1.21073-1.55117
Twente
Emmen		59.9%
18.9%		21.2%
-138
+392
-135
+355
3
0		-0.57281-0.60373-0.51204
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax		18.5%
59.9%		21.6%
+370
-143
+380
-155
0
0		-1.48466-1.49709-1.53438
PSV Eindhoven
Sparta Rotterdam		66.1%
15.5%		18.4%
-178
+490
-195
+495
1
0		-0.47496-0.46401-0.41412
RKC Waalwijk
AZ Alkmaar		4.8%
84.6%		10.6%
+764
-290
+665
-265
0
3		-0.32580-0.37164-0.16756
Utrecht
Feyenoord		21.3%
56.2%		22.4%
+779
-276
+745
-300
1
3		-0.33871-0.33822-0.57602
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven		55.9%
21.7%		22.3%
+235
+115
+230
+105
0
3		-0.78594-0.76718-1.52707
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.29197 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (1.000)1 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.36055
-0.06858

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.