Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam		44.3%
32.7%		23.0%
+115
+260
+110
+255
3
0		-0.79367-0.79264-0.81423
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven		51.2%
27.4%		21.4%
-110
+298
-115
+295
2
1		-0.69027-0.67564-0.66994
Twente
Willem II		39.4%
36.4%		24.2%
+135
+225
+130
+240
1
0		-0.89270-0.88312-0.93186
Zwolle
Heerenveen		28.4%
49.8%		21.8%
+190
+146
+200
+140
1
0		-1.09491-1.14599-1.25949
Groningen
Vitesse		30.3%
44.0%		25.7%
+265
+105
+290
+100
3
1		-1.33651-1.41026-1.19274
AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard		64.3%
19.0%		16.7%
-195
+600
-210
+575
2
1		-0.45240-0.43615-0.44184
PSV Eindhoven
Groningen		47.4%
28.8%		23.9%
-220
+610
-270
+750
1
0		-0.41898-0.36525-0.74701
Ajax
Utrecht		65.3%
18.4%		16.3%
-265
+640
-220
+550
3
0		-0.36549-0.42528-0.42615
Heerenveen
Twente		37.8%
37.8%		24.4%
+310
-110
+300
-115
0
2		-0.68043-0.67598-0.97188
Vitesse
Feyenoord		30.1%
46.2%		23.7%
+640
-235
+650
-250
1
0		-2.04299-2.06530-1.19988
Willem II
Zwolle		36.0%
40.3%		23.8%
+215
+145
+190
+150
0
2		-0.92523-0.96748-0.90897
RKC Waalwijk
Sparta Rotterdam		24.4%
55.1%		20.5%
+425
-140
+420
-140
1
1		-1.36735-1.33298-1.58601
Fortuna Sittard
Ajax		9.4%
80.6%		10.0%
+3500
-2500

0
5		-0.08623-0.21586
Twente
Utrecht		29.9%
47.5%		22.7%
+285
-104
+320
-110
1
1		-1.32103-1.28884-1.48479
Feyenoord
Heerenveen		48.1%
29.0%		22.9%
-260
+730
-260
+625
3
0		-0.35632-0.37481-0.73106
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar		22.0%
56.3%		21.7%
+650
-222
+750
-250
0
1		-0.40680-0.38462-0.57421
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.