Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Zwolle
Vitesse		22.7%
58.3%		19.0%
+499
-169
+525
-190
0
1		-0.49484-0.47209-0.54013
PSV Eindhoven
RKC Waalwijk		71.8%
14.4%		13.8%
-417
+1113
-500
+1250
4
1		-0.25145-0.23136-0.33098
Ajax
Feyenoord		54.1%
24.9%		21.0%
-122
+295
-125
+300
2
0		-0.64420-0.63892-0.61524
Twente
Zwolle		40.3%
35.9%		23.8%
+130
+242
+115
+245
3
1		-0.85400-0.81340-0.90966
Groningen
Heracles Almelo		39.7%
33.7%		26.6%
+220
+140
+230
+135
2
4		-0.91349-0.90429-1.08815
Willem II
AZ Alkmaar		15.9%
69.3%		14.8%
+1300
-455
+1050
-410
1
4		-0.24508-0.26788-0.36662
Vitesse
Sparta Rotterdam		48.7%
29.0%		22.3%
+185
+180
+140
+205
2
2		-1.19852-1.22960-1.49852
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard		47.0%
30.5%		22.5%
-145
+390
-150
+375
2
2		-1.44253-1.47333-1.48988
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax		24.7%
54.2%		21.1%
+900
-250
+1000
-410
2
1		-2.28337-2.44542-1.39719
Heracles Almelo
Vitesse		26.0%
51.6%		22.4%
+400
-151
+430
-155
1
2		-0.54711-0.54943-0.66095
Feyenoord
Groningen		43.7%
30.8%		25.5%
-204
+560
-200
+560
1
1		-1.54787-1.49906-1.36512
RKC Waalwijk
Twente		22.3%
57.8%		19.9%
+420
-143
+485
-170
1
2		-0.57322-0.51196-0.54790
Fortuna Sittard
Zwolle		35.3%
41.3%		23.5%
+265
+116
+275
+105
1
0		-1.32118-1.36920-1.04143
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen		30.4%
47.1%		22.6%
+222
+129
+230
+120
0
0		-1.28518-1.27418-1.48917
Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord		19.0%
64.6%		16.5%
+1609
-667
+1700
-650
0
5		-0.18289-0.19309-0.43719
Sparta Rotterdam
AZ Alkmaar		17.0%
68.0%		15.0%
+760
-220
+700
-245
1
3		-0.39797-0.39349-0.38528
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.