Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 6 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
12/04/2021 08:00 PM	Heerenveen Heracles Almelo	37.6% 37.4%	25.0%	+205 +128 +215 +115	1 0	-1.14983-1.19892	-0.97793
12/04/2021 03:30 PM	Utrecht PSV Eindhoven	25.0% 55.3%	19.7%	+475 -177 +440 -180	1 4	-0.47321-0.49088	-0.59281
12/03/2021 07:00 PM	Zwolle Groningen	25.4% 52.2%	22.4%	+395 +103 +400 -130	1 1	-1.24500-1.30247	-1.49682
12/02/2021 08:00 PM	Willem II Ajax	9.7% 79.8%	10.5%	+3500 -1667 +3000 -1500	0 5	-0.09940-0.11626	-0.22602
12/02/2021 05:45 PM	Fortuna Sittard AZ Alkmaar	15.4% 70.4%	14.2%	+1100 -500 +1060 -435	1 2	-0.23824-0.25871	-0.35147
12/01/2021 07:00 PM	Heracles Almelo Feyenoord	22.1% 58.0%	19.9%	+851 -330 +900 -335	1 2	-0.31459-0.30876	-0.54488
11/28/2021 07:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar Vitesse	45.9% 30.2%	23.9%	+140 +200 +135 +195	0 0	-1.26691-1.30177	-1.43196
11/28/2021 03:45 PM	PSV Eindhoven Heerenveen	52.0% 26.9%	21.1%	-235 +600 -210 +525	1 1	-1.65282-1.60495	-1.55817
11/28/2021 01:30 PM	Heracles Almelo Utrecht	29.5% 47.3%	23.2%	+361 -135 +360 -140	0 1	-0.59729-0.58848	-0.74915
11/28/2021 01:30 PM	Feyenoord Twente	51.5% 26.7%	21.7%	-120 +320 -130 +355	0 0	-1.39046-1.37212	-1.52689
11/28/2021 11:15 AM	Ajax Sparta Rotterdam	74.4% 13.3%	12.3%	-500 +1460 -650 +1600	1 0	-0.21210-0.19236	-0.29585
11/27/2021 07:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Zwolle	26.2% 52.2%	21.6%	+250 +115 +240 +120	0 0	-1.28244-1.24434	-1.53289
11/27/2021 05:45 PM	Groningen Fortuna Sittard	45.7% 29.8%	24.5%	+170 +165 +165 +170	4 1	-1.03426-1.02407	-0.78309
11/21/2021 03:45 PM	Ajax RKC Waalwijk	82.0% 7.6%	10.4%	-909 +2277 -900 +2000	5 0	-0.13658-0.15432	-0.19813
11/21/2021 01:30 PM	Willem II Heerenveen	28.8% 48.7%	22.5%	+285 -110 +290 -115	1 2	-0.69361-0.67548	-0.71861
11/21/2021 01:30 PM	Zwolle Feyenoord	19.1% 64.6%	16.4%	+1300 -476 +1400 -560	0 4	-0.23056-0.21603	-0.43750

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.