Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Utrecht
Twente 		41.6%
32.6%		25.8%
+425
-154

1.43
1.24		2.67
o2¾-126
u3-122

Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar 		11.2%
71.6%		17.2%
+700
-278

0.81
2.33		3.14
o3-140
u3¼-112

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Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fortuna Sittard
Utrecht		19.5%
59.5%		21.0%
+663
-232
+650
-250
1
1		-1.63399-1.65595-1.56112
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam		41.0%
33.4%		25.6%
+250
+128
+235
+125
1
1		-1.22305-1.22806-1.36223
Heracles Almelo
Fortuna Sittard		39.7%
33.7%		26.6%
+241
+132
+185
+150
2
0		-1.24074-1.09551-0.92281
Willem II
Feyenoord		12.0%
70.9%		17.0%
+1966
-667
+1500
-650
0
2		-0.16976-0.19439-0.34353
Utrecht
RKC Waalwijk		64.8%
15.3%		19.9%
+101
+291
-115
+315
1
1		-1.31759-1.34335-1.61636
Vitesse
AZ Alkmaar		19.8%
57.7%		22.5%
+457
-137
+425
-150
1
3		-0.56593-0.55982-0.55002
PSV Eindhoven
Twente		61.6%
18.1%		20.3%
+100
+303
-120
+310
3
3		-1.34232-1.38617-1.59425
Ajax
Groningen		70.7%
11.1%		18.2%
-335
+1034
-385
+1000
3
1		-0.28190-0.28102-0.34699
AZ Alkmaar
Willem II		70.4%
12.2%		17.4%
-159
+483
-165
+480
2
2		-1.41919-1.41116-1.75014
RKC Waalwijk
Vitesse		8.8%
76.0%		15.2%
+560
-189
+490
-185
2
1		-1.91630-1.82486-2.43338
Fortuna Sittard
PSV Eindhoven		9.5%
76.2%		14.2%
+1916
-675
+1800
-750
0
5		-0.16816-0.17326-0.27181
Feyenoord
Ajax		13.6%
67.8%		18.6%
+588
-227
+510
-210
2
3		-0.39637-0.44217-0.38893
Groningen
Utrecht		32.0%
40.2%		27.7%
+320
-110
+350
-125
3
1		-1.47033-1.55452-1.13822
Zwolle
Twente		26.5%
49.6%		23.9%
+538
-175
+500
-180
0
1		-0.48833-0.49389-0.70152
Heracles Almelo
Heerenveen		28.8%
45.3%		25.9%
+240
+126
+195
+140
0
2		-0.84562-0.92402-0.79133
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
72.1%		16.6%
+400
-110
+400
-130
1
0		-1.61974-1.65910-2.18631
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59352 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.500)1 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.15559
0.43793

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.