Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar 		11.2%
71.6%		17.2%
+700
-286

0.81
2.33		3.14
o3¼-111
u3¼-105

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Utrecht
Twente 		41.6%
32.6%		25.8%
+400
-141

2.67
o2¾-125
u3-121

2nd H
49:00		1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Feyenoord
Zwolle		64.5%
16.0%		19.5%
-200
+550
-210
+550
2
1		-0.44732-0.44158-0.43920
Vitesse
Heracles Almelo		47.6%
26.9%		25.5%
+265
+105
+185
+150
0
0		-1.30745-1.24643-1.36477
PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht		52.2%
24.7%		23.0%
-140
+360
-135
+340
1
0		-0.57174-0.60475-0.64919
Willem II
Fortuna Sittard		34.1%
40.0%		25.9%
+235
+128
+215
+135
0
1		-0.86800-0.90387-0.91542
Heerenveen
RKC Waalwijk		60.0%
18.2%		21.8%
+190
+159
+180
+150
0
0		-1.26104-1.27379-1.52468
Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard		33.3%
41.4%		25.3%
+170
+180
+160
+170
1
0		-1.01382-1.00343-1.09904
RKC Waalwijk
Ajax		2.8%
90.1%		7.1%
+5000
-2445

2
3		-0.07042-0.10439
Heracles Almelo
PSV Eindhoven		13.0%
69.2%		17.8%
+1467
-535
+1000
-450
1
3		-0.20564-0.25132-0.36792
Groningen
Feyenoord		21.1%
54.5%		24.5%
+1452
-461
+1200
-400
1
1		-1.97942-1.79878-1.40829
Heerenveen
Willem II		43.5%
31.0%		25.5%
+175
+177
+165
+175
0
0		-1.21049-1.21527-1.36543
Utrecht
Heerenveen		37.1%
36.2%		26.7%
+115
+252
+105
+250
2
1		-0.78404-0.76787-0.99166
PSV Eindhoven
Sparta Rotterdam		66.1%
15.5%		18.4%
-199
+653
-215
+610
2
1		-0.43245-0.43135-0.41412
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar		25.7%
49.6%		24.7%
+170
+173
+150
+170
1
2		-1.02884-1.04401-0.70120
Willem II
Groningen		20.4%
55.9%		23.7%
+399
-112
+425
-135
0
1		-0.65322-0.60373-0.58141
Zwolle
Heracles Almelo		26.6%
48.9%		24.5%
+245
+128
+265
+105
0
2		-0.84992-0.76819-0.71627
Twente
RKC Waalwijk		55.8%
21.1%		23.1%
+121
+247
+120
+225
2
1		-0.81667-0.83924-0.58306
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59352 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.500)1 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.15559
0.43793

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.