Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 28, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Boavista
Porto 		5.2%
82.5%		12.3%
+1700
-725

0.52
2.66		3.18
o3¼-115
u3¼-105

Games for Dec 27, 2024
Games for Dec 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nacional
Vitoria		14.8%
62.7%		22.5%
+750
-256
+600
-230
2
2		-1.59588-1.60724-1.49148
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		68.7%
11.8%		19.4%
-290
+675
-295
+700
0
0		-1.67954-1.75701-1.63887
Braga
Santa Clara		64.3%
15.2%		20.5%
+149
+215
+135
+235
2
0		-0.95308-0.90503-0.44128
Porto
Moreirense		73.1%
9.7%		17.2%
-220
+600
-205
+575
3
0		-0.44091-0.44626-0.31375
SC Farense
Famalicao		23.8%
51.7%		24.5%
+330
-101
+340
-105
2
1		-1.50977-1.53229-1.43666
Benfica
Nacional		71.6%
10.4%		18.0%


2
0		-0.33428
Vitoria
Rio Ave		41.6%
29.4%		29.0%
-130
+360
-110
+340
2
2		-1.32927-1.25734-1.23705
Famalicao
Braga		11.0%
73.1%		15.9%
+460
-170
+500
-175
3
3		-1.43330-1.44745-1.83841
Boavista
Sporting CP		8.2%
75.8%		16.0%
+1600
-800
+1850
-1000
2
3		-0.17378-0.14531-0.27693
Moreirense
Nacional		41.2%
29.0%		29.9%
+151
+200
+145
+220
0
1		-1.17022-1.21053-1.23950
Gil Vicente FC
SC Farense		36.4%
33.7%		29.9%
+175
+167
+210
+150
1
0		-1.08066-1.18061-1.01046
SC Farense
Boavista		28.2%
43.1%		28.7%
+195
+155
+215
+150
1
1		-1.14492-1.14819-1.24907
Porto
Famalicao		76.9%
8.6%		14.5%
-263
+675
-255
+710
1
1		-1.59460-1.60909-1.92951
Rio Ave
Santa Clara		34.8%
34.0%		31.2%
+440
-145
+420
-135
0
1		-0.58927-0.60547-1.08022
Vitoria
Benfica		18.6%
58.9%		22.5%
+875
-345
+925
-340
0
1		-0.32233-0.30862-0.52974
Nacional
Gil Vicente FC		28.0%
42.2%		29.8%
+285
+108
+300
-105
1
2		-0.77499-0.71980-0.86192
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.59588 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.60724 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.49148
0.10440
0.11576

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).