Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 20 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/17/2025 05:00 PM	Benfica Braga	34.4% 39.1%	26.5%	-185 +420 -190 +500	1 1	-1.54806-1.52956	-1.32852
05/17/2025 05:00 PM	Santa Clara SC Farense	40.7% 30.3%	29.0%	+174 +175 +175 +175	2 1	-1.05788-1.06025	-0.89965
05/17/2025 05:00 PM	Vitoria Sporting CP	18.1% 58.8%	23.0%	+725 -315 +960 -360	0 2	-0.33909-0.29618	-0.53020
05/17/2025 05:00 PM	Nacional Porto	4.8% 83.2%	11.9%	+770 -325 +800 -320	0 3	-0.31623-0.32223	-0.18335
05/16/2025 06:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Rio Ave	24.4% 47.4%	28.3%	+155 +172 +165 +180	1 1	-1.25485-1.19806	-1.26390
05/11/2025 07:30 PM	Porto Boavista	78.2% 7.0%	14.8%	-245 +680 -245 +605	2 1	-0.40585-0.39297	-0.24567
05/11/2025 05:00 PM	SC Farense Vitoria	13.9% 65.5%	20.7%	+525 -189 +625 -200	2 1	-1.89167-2.02837	-1.97595
05/10/2025 05:00 PM	Sporting CP Benfica	32.9% 39.5%	27.6%	+215 +125 +240 +115	1 1	-1.24594-1.27576	-1.28801
05/10/2025 02:30 PM	Famalicao Santa Clara	32.7% 39.6%	27.7%	+320 -105 +355 -110	1 2	-0.72996-0.69663	-0.92561
05/10/2025 02:30 PM	Rio Ave Nacional	42.5% 27.4%	30.1%	+240 +105 +250 +100	3 3	-1.36920-1.37279	-1.20091
05/04/2025 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Sporting CP	8.6% 74.9%	16.4%	+1600 -675 +1950 -750	1 2	-0.18860-0.17481	-0.28844
05/03/2025 05:00 PM	Santa Clara Braga	11.0% 71.6%	17.4%	+370 -125 +380 -125	1 1	-1.29492-1.30122	-1.74675
05/03/2025 02:30 PM	Vitoria Nacional	54.6% 19.8%	25.5%	-104 +285 -115 +300	2 1	-0.73143-0.67598	-0.60457
05/03/2025 02:30 PM	Famalicao SC Farense	42.6% 30.7%	26.8%	+155 +184 +160 +190	1 2	-1.09904-1.11541	-1.18228
05/02/2025 07:15 PM	Moreirense Porto	7.1% 78.5%	14.4%	+725 -300 +935 -325	1 3	-0.35647-0.31706	-0.24193
04/27/2025 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Boavista	69.8% 11.2%	19.0%	-667 +1500 -700 +1800	5 0	-0.19236-0.17983	-0.35949

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).