Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Braga
Nacional 		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-139
+400
-120
+345
2.22
0.75		2.97
o2½-115
u2½+101

Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Braga		19.8%
57.5%		22.7%
+240
+111
+230
+125
2
0		-1.27615-1.24320-1.61979
SC Farense
Porto		4.4%
85.0%		10.6%
+2500
-850
+1900
-750
1
2		-0.14896-0.17396-0.16248
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		28.2%
45.1%		26.7%
+320
-102
+335
-115
1
1		-1.23898-1.30203-1.32114
Santa Clara
Benfica		10.3%
72.2%		17.4%
+900
-360
+1050
-400
1
4		-0.30450-0.27538-0.32537
Famalicao
Vitoria		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+295
-105
+325
-105
1
2		-0.74402-0.71832-0.56365
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		68.2%
12.9%		18.9%
-116
+310
-120
+315
0
0		-1.34819-1.38338-1.66395
SC Farense
Nacional		30.0%
40.4%		29.6%
+250
+105
+260
+105
0
2		-0.77538-0.76787-0.90659
Porto
Sporting CP		44.2%
28.8%		27.0%
+275
+103
+300
-115
0
2		-0.74819-0.67598-1.24337
Benfica
Moreirense		62.7%
15.9%		21.4%
-230
+620
-230
+620
1
1		-1.55174-1.58655-1.54071
Moreirense
Braga		12.3%
69.2%		18.5%
+360
-139
+395
-150
1
3		-0.59906-0.56154-0.36823
Boavista
Famalicao		26.9%
46.5%		26.5%
+500
-170
+525
-165
0
1		-0.52707-0.52192-0.76520
Rio Ave
Porto		7.6%
77.0%		15.4%
+1000
-400
+1075
-400
0
2		-0.27913-0.27362-0.26130
Sporting CP
SC Farense		73.8%
9.5%		16.8%
-550
+1200
-560
+1200
5
0		-0.23091-0.21348-0.30438
Braga
Boavista		69.2%
12.2%		18.6%
-161
+440
-200
+510
1
0		-0.53684-0.45462-0.36807
Sporting CP
Nacional		71.2%
10.2%		18.5%
-435
+1000
-420
+1000
6
1		-0.27017-0.26469-0.33912
SC Farense
Rio Ave		20.5%
53.8%		25.7%
+280
+112
+280
+100
0
1		-0.78860-0.74482-0.61984
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).